The Belle of the South

The crew of the Beast of Burden have disabled a pirate ship in the Rigel system, and are preparing to board. The cast for this session:

  • Adam, gunner and acting captain
  • Oliver Greenstar, colonist
  • Reiko Ando, deckhand and swordwoman
  • Siladan Hatshepsut, archaeologist and data djinn
  • Saqr, pilot and mystic

Two of their attackers have escaped, one has been reduced to shards of metal, and one lies paralyzed in space, Siladan’s data pulse still wreaking havoc in its systems and preventing it from escape or attack. They transferred all their fighters to the Beast of Burden and moved in to board the incapacitated vessel.

Onboard the Donald J Trump Jr 3rd

They drew close and attached their docking station, though it did not connect cleanly because the seal on their target was of a strange and unorthodox design, that did not fit their docking seal. Siladan fit a breaching charge and they blew the door open and prepared to enter.

Inside was a small open area, covering the majority of the space inside the ship, containing only four standing steel barricades set at even spaces in the room. Soldiers lay in wait behind these barricades, ready to open fire on anyone who entered. Unfortunately for the men waiting inside, Adam was carrying the group’s machine gun, and laid down an immediate barrage of bullets that decimated the crew. Siladan and Reiko charged forward under Oliver’s covering fire, and although some of them suffered light wounds, they were able to break into the room and close to melee range. Most of their enemies were firing vulcan carbines, which they used ineffectually to attempt to drive the fighters back, but one was using a strange energy weapon that seemed to fire a highly-focused and extremely dangerous laser. They had never seen this before, but after a couple of seconds of brutal and one-sided hand-to-hand combat its owner lay gurgling on the floor, the gun in Adam’s competent hands.

The rest of the ship consisted of just two small ready rooms that led from the docking area to the bridge. In the bridge they found two crew in their seats, dead, and a large and precise series of holes cut in the hull by the Beast of Burden‘s accelerator cannon. There was no atmosphere in the bridge, and when they entered they found a man hiding under a desk. They dragged him out, and when they did so they somehow broke a seal of duct tape on his exo suit, causing it to leak air. As he panicked they dragged him back into the ready room, sealed the door against the de-atmosphered bridge, and forced him to surrender. They had the ship, and a prisoner.

The Loser’s Flag

The ship yielded nothing interesting. It was an entirely functional, plainly dressed and frankly very primitive looking fighting vessel, with no decorations but for a picture of a strange orange-skinned fat man in one room, and a cross with a strangely sexualized semi-naked man crucified on it in another. They thought it might be a strangely perverted figure of one of the icons, but they could find no sign that anyone here was religious at all, and their prisoner obviously did not speak their language fluently. The only other icon they found was a strange flag, with many stars on it. It made no sense though, because it did not have enough stars to represent the Third Horizon, and too many for just this system. No one could remember how many stars were in the Dabaran circle, so it was a mystery to them. Stranger still, every crew member of the ship had replaced their natural eyes with poorly-made and rough-looking cybernetic goggles, which protruded from their skull and made them look like barbarians. Medical scans of the bodies revealed no other cyberwear – just the complete replacement of their visual system with these poorly-crafted cyber-eyes.

They attempted to loot the ship’s Exo suits but they were old, run down and heavily-repaired, and not worth much. When they investigated the dead pilot and gunner they found that they had died when the atmosphere exited the ship – their exo suits were not impermeable, and they had died of suffocation as the air drained out. This ship was obviously very old, very run down, and was running on tape and stitches. These pirates had not expected serious opposition, and had been flying in a vessel that was obviously not much longer going to be able to hold out the Dark.

The First Horizon

They tried to get their captive to show them where the ship’s data core was, but they could only learn that the ship had no data core, only separate partial data storage for each position on the ship. Worse still, their captive’s position was Data Djinn (though he called it “SIGINT Ops”), but he had to interact with the ship’s computer using a keyboard. They gave up on electronic information and resorted to interrogating the captured crewman.

This data djinn’s name was Alex “The Q”, and he was cooperative with their interrogation after a few threats. He first warned them that his mother ship would come back for him and then they would be in deep trouble, but after that he was happy to speak. They learnt that he and his fellows were the remnants of a First Horizon fleet that had been trapped in Rigel at the end of the portal wars some 200 years ago. They were based on a troopship called Zarra’s End, and at the last moments of a retreat in this system its drive systems and main reactor, as well as its stasis pods, had been destroyed by heavy fire. Unable to move, it and its complement of support ships had been abandoned by the last scattered survivors of the First Horizon’s fleet, and had been left to die in the Dark of the outer reaches of Rigel. They survived, however, and since then they had become pirates in this system. They used the ships they looted to repair their own ships, but would not take on any of their victims’ technology, and had no way to repair their own stasis beds and no technological skills to transfer stasis pods from the ships they captured. They had been stranded here for more than a century, building a pirate society in the barely-functioning remains of the Zarra’s End.

Further investigation revealed that the society on Zarra’s End was an unpleasant and abhorrent system of heirarchies and slavery. Alex “The Q” told them that the system they lived in had infected them with a strange, incurable and inherited disease, Deneb’s Blindness Disease, which caused anyone in the system to go blind after 6-8 years. So all children born in the pirate enclave had cybereyes fitted at about this age, and grew up with only electronic sight. There were not enough cyber-eyes to go around, however, and the skill to make and repair them was limited, so they recycled eyes and newly-made eyes were often not very good quality. The men who received the best eyes became warriors, while the men with poorer eyes became support staff and servants. Women received no eyes, grew up blind, and were confined to a small area of the ship. People captured from other ships were used for slave labour until they went blind, then spaced.

Adam had been planning to recommend they take this ship and leave, but when he heard that he decided that they needed to destroy these pirates. They would not take their time sending information about them to the Legion. They would go and kill them all, and free their prisoners.

Strange Manners from Strange Horizons

Something they noticed about Alex “The Q” was that he had very erratic behavior that made him very difficult to talk to. He alternated been explosions of extreme and violent rage and sudden desperate craven spasms of sorrow and despair. He would cower and beg and cry, then bristle up and scream and fight, until someone punched him enough to put him in his place. Sometimes he would become sullen and unresponsive, as if wracked by depression and angst. From these episodes of depression he would inevitably explode in spite and rage, before cowering and sniveling to his new captors. His behavior was incomprehensible and erratic, and they could not fathom how he could be this way.

On a hunch Saqr accessed the video recordings from the Donald J Trump Jr 3rd‘s last few days, hoping to see the face of someone who had stayed behind on the Zarra’s End before the ship left on its pirate mission. If Saqr could see one person who was not currently on board the ship, he would be able to use his mystic powers to find the Zarra’s End’s location. Unfortunately, however, the video recordings from the ship’s internal cameras only went back two days, and no new faces were visible on it. But the footage did show Saqr a wild panorama of violence, bullying and hatred. The pirate leader would regularly beat and castigate his inferiors, forcing them to cower and beg and hitting them with impunity; and they would then enact the same violence on those next down the ladder of the heirarchy. The entire crew lived in terror of each other, on the edge of constant violence, acting barely civilized and obviously only uniting in the appreciation of violence towards others. Something was very wrong with this pirate community – either it was a strange and desperately evil cult, or something had gone very awry in its military code. Was all of the First Horizon like this, completely overrun with authoritarian violence? No wonder the Firstcome had fled, and no wonder they had fought a war with the First Horizon and sealed the portals. No one wanted a society like this a mere portal’s jump away.

No matter. They would exterminate this nest of hold-outs, free their prisoners, and end the menace in Rigel.

The ambush

Alex “The Q” spoke a strange language that they could not decipher and could not hope to trust him to use, so they decided to lay a trap for the rest of the fleet from the Zarra’s End. They asked the passenger ship Plainsong – the original targets of the pirates’ violence – to again send out their distress signal, and lay in wait for the incoming ships of the Zarra’s End, their ship disguised in stealth mode.

They did not have to wait long. Soon a large contingent of fighting ships approached, which Alex “The Q” identified as:

  • The Twin Towers
  • Constitution 231
  • The Kentucky Derby
  • The New York Minute
  • On the Road
  • The Michelle Malkin

and a larger ship, the raider Belle of the South 142. As they approached the Plainsong’s emergency beacon the PCs’ entire fleet – the Beast of Burden, the Judgment of the Dancer, and the No Satisfaction – closed the jaws of their trap.

This battle was vicious, and when it began there was no guarantee that they would prevail. Fortunately their first shots disabled the Belle of the South‘s drives, and as it drifted by useless they were able to decimate the remaining smaller ships in the fleet, returning through the debris cloud to tear apart the larger ship as it repaired its drives and returned to the battle. Within a few minutes of springing the trap they had eliminated the entire pirate fleet, and were ready to attack the Zarra’s End.

They piled into the Donald J Trump Jr 3rd‘s boarding area, loaded up their weapons, and headed towards the Zarra’s End, faking battle damage and ready to attack. These barbarians from the First Horizon would be dead soon, and whatever horrors they had brought with them would be lost in the Dark between the stars. No mercy for slavers, and no kindness towards their ancient enemies: they were ready to do what had to be done.

The 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has now escaped China and taken a firm grip on the rest of the world, with Italy in a complete lockdown, most of Europe shuttered and the UK and the US spaffing their response up a wall. A few weeks ago I wrote a short post assessing the case fatality rate of the disease and assessing whether it is a global threat, and I think now is time to write an update on the virus. In this post I will address the mortality rate, some ways of looking at the total disease burden, discuss its infectiousness, and talk about what might be coming if we don’t get a grip on this. In the past few weeks I have been working with Chinese collaborators on this virus so I am going to take the unusual step of referencing some of my meat life work, though as always I won’t name collaborators, so as to avoid their names being associated with a blog that sometimes involves human sacrifice.

As always, what COVID-19 is doing can be understood in terms of infectious disease epidemiology and the mathematics that underlies it, but only to the extent that we have good quality data. Fortunately we now do have some decent data, so we can begin to make some strong judgments – and the conclusions we will draw are not pretty.

How deadly is this disease?

The deadliness of an infectious disease can be assessed in terms of its case fatality ratio (CFR), which is the proportion of affected cases who die. In my last post I estimated the CFR for COVID-19 to be about 0.4% (uncertainty range 0.22 – 1.7%), and suggested it was between 2 and 10 times as deadly as influenza. The official CFR in China has hovered around 2%, but we know that many mild cases were not diagnosed, and the true CFR must be lower. Since then, however, the Diamond Princess cruise ship hove into view, was quarantined off Yokohama, and carefully monitored. This is a very serendipitous event (for those not on the ship, obviously) since it means we have a complete case record – every case on that ship was diagnosed, symptomatic or not. On that ship we saw 700 people infected and 7 deaths, so a CFR of 1%. I used a simple Bayesian method to use that confirmed mortality rate, updated by the deaths in China, to estimate the under reporting rate in China to be at least 50%, work which is currently available as a preprint at the WHO’s COVID-19 preprint archive. I think a decent estimate of the under reporting rate is 90%, indicating that there are 10 times as many cases as are being reported, and the true CFR is therefore 10 times lower. That puts the CFR in China at 0.2%, or probably twice as deadly as the seasonal flu. However, we also have data from South Korea, where an extensive testing regime was put in place, that suggests a CFR more in the range of 1%.

It’s worth noting that the CFR depends on the age distribution of affected people, and the age distribution in the cruise ship was skewed to very old. This suggests that in a younger population the CFR would be lower. There is also likely to be a differential rate of underreporting, with probably a lower percentage of children being reported than elderly people. It is noteworthy that only 1% of confirmed cases in China were children, which is very different to influenza. As quarantine measures get harsher and health systems struggle, it is likely that people will choose to risk not reporting their virus, and this will lead to over estimates of mortality and underestimates of total cases. But it certainly appears this disease is at least twice as dangerous as influenza.

CFRs also seem to be very different in the west, where testing coverage has been poor in some countries. Today California reported 675 cases and 16 deaths, 2.5 times the CFR rate on the Diamond Princess in probably a younger population. Until countries like the US and UK expand their testing, we won’t know exactly how bad it is in those countries but we should expect a large number of infected people to die.

On the internet and in some opinion pieces, and from the mouths of some conservative politicians, you will hear people say that it “only” kills 1% of people and so you don’t need to worry too much. This is highly misleading, because it does not take into account that in a normal year less than 1% of the population dies, and a disease that kills 1% of people will double your nation’s total death rate if it is allowed to spread uncontrolled. It is important to understand what the background risk is before you assess small numbers as “low risk”!

What is the burden of the disease?

The CFR tells you how likely an affected person is to die, but an important question is what is the burden of the disease? Burden means the total number of patients who need to be hospitalized, and the final mortality rate as a proportion of the population. While the CFR tells us what to expect for those infected, estimates of burden tell us what society can expect this disease to do.

First, let us establish a simple baseline: Japan, with 120 million people, experiences 1 million deaths a year. This is the burden of mortality in a peaceful, well-functioning society with a standard pattern of infectious disease and an elderly population. We can apply this approximately to other countries to see what is going on, on the safe assumption that any estimates we get will be conservative estimates because Japan has one of the highest mortality rates in the world[1]. Consider Wuhan, population 12 million. It should expect 100,000 deaths a year, or about 8,000 a month. Over two months it experienced about 3000 COVID-19 deaths, when it should have seen about 15,000 deaths normally. So the virus caused about 20% excess mortality. This is a very large excess mortality. Now consider Italy, which has seen 3500 deaths in about one month. Italy has a population of 60 million so should see 500,000 deaths a year, or about 40,000 a month. So it has seen about 10% excess mortality. However, those 3500 deaths have been clustered in just the Northern region, which likely only has a population similar to Wuhan – so more likely it has seen 40% excess mortality. That is a very high burden, which is reflected in obituaries in the affected towns.

Reports are also beginning to spread on both social media and in the news about the impact on hospitals in Italy and the US. In particular in Northern Italy, doctors are having to make very hard decisions about access to equipment, with new guidance likening the situation to medical decisions made after disasters. Something like 5% of affected people in Wuhan needed to be admitted to intensive care, and it appears that the symptoms of COVID-19 last longer than influenza. It also appears that mortality rates are high, and there are already predictions that Italy will run out of intensive care facilities rapidly. The situation in northern Italy is probably exacerbated by the age of the population and the rapid growth of the disease there, but it shows that there is a lot of potential for this virus to rapidly overwhelm health systems, and when it does you can expect mortality rates to sky-rocket.

This is why the UK government talked about “flattening the curve”, because even if the same total number of people are affected, the more slowly they are affected the less risk that the care system breaks down. This is particularly true in systems like the US, where hospitals maintain lean operating structures, or the UK where the health system has been stripped of all its resources by years of Tory mismanagement.

Who does it affect?

The first Chinese study of the epidemiology of this disease suggested that the mortality rate increases steeply, from 0% in children to 15% in the very elderly. It also suggested that only a very small number of confirmed cases are young people, but this is likely due to underreporting. This excellent medium post uses data from an Italian media report to compare the age distribution of cases in Italy with those in South Korea, and shows that in South Korea 30% of cases were in people aged 20-29, versus just 4% in Italy. This discrepancy arises because South Korea did extensive population-level testing, while Italy is just doing testing in severe cases (or was, at the time the report was written). Most of those young people will experience COVID-19 as a simple influenza-like illness, rather than the devastating respiratory disease that affects elderly people, and if we standardize the Chinese CFR to this Korean population we would likely see it drop from 2% to 1%, as the Koreans are experiencing. This South Korean age distribution contains some important information:

  • The disease does not seem to affect children much, and doesn’t harm them, which is good
  • Young people aged 20-39 are likely to be very efficient carriers and spreaders of the disease
  • Elderly people are at lower risk of getting the disease than younger people but for them it is very dangerous

This makes very clear the importance of social distancing and lockdowns for preventing the spread of the disease. Those young people will be spreading it to each other and their family members, while not feeling that it is very bad. If you saturate that young population with messages that people are overreacting and that there is not a serious risk and that “only” the elderly and the sick will die, you will spread this disease very effectively to their parents and grandparents – who will die.

It’s worth noting that a small proportion of those young people do experience severe symptoms and require hospitalization and ventilation. In health workers in China there was a death rate among health workers of about 0.2%, and we could probably take that as the likely CFR in young people with good access to care. If the disease spreads fast enough and overwhelms health systems, we can expect to see not insignificant mortality in people aged 20-39, as their access to intensive care breaks down. This is especially likely in populations with high prevalence of asthma (Australia) or diabetes (the US and the UK) or smoking (Italy, and some parts of eastern Europe). So it is not at this stage a good idea for young people to be complacent about their own risk, and if you have any sense of social solidarity you should be being very careful about the risk you pose to others.

How fast does it spread?

The speed at which an infectious disease spreads can be summarized by two numbers: the generation time and the basic reproduction number (R0). Generation time is the time it takes for symptoms to appear in a second case after infection by the first case, and the basic reproduction number is the number of additional cases that will be caused by one infection. For influenza the generation time is typically 2-4 days, while for COVID-19 it is probably 4-6 days. The basic reproduction number of influenza is between 1.3 – 1.5, while the initial estimates for COVID-19 were 2.5, meaning that each case of COVID-19 will affect 2.5 people. Unfortunately I think these early estimates were very wrong, and my own research suggests the number is more likely between 4 and 5. This means that each case will infect 4-5 other cases before it resolves. This is a very fast-spreading disease, much more effective at spreading than influenza, and this high R0 explains why it was able to suddenly explode in Italy and the US. A disease with an R0 over 2 is scary and requires special efforts to control.

Those early estimates of R0 at 2 to 2.5 had a significant negative impact on assessment of the global threat of this disease. I believe they led the scientific community to be slightly complacent, and to think that the disease would be relatively easy to contain and would not be as destructive as it has become. In my research our figures for projected infection numbers show clearly that these models with lower R0 simply cannot predict the future trend of the virus – they undershoot it significantly and fit the epidemic curve poorly. Sadly governments are still acting on the basis of these estimates: the UK government’s estimate that the disease will stop spreading once 60% of people are affected is based on an R0 of 2.5, when an R0 of 4 suggests 75% of people need to be infected. An early R0 estimate of 4 would have rung alarm bells throughout the world, and would have been much more consistent with the disaster we saw unfolding in Hubei. Fortunately the Chinese medical establishment were not so complacent, and worked hard to buy the world time to prepare for this virus’s escape. Sadly many western countries did not take advantage of that extra month, and are paying the price now as they see what this disease really is like.

Because this disease is so highly infectious, special measures are needed to contain it. For a mildly dangerous disease with an R0 of 1.3 (like influenza), vaccination of the very vulnerable and sensible social distancing among infected people is sufficient to contain it without major economic disruption. Above 2, however, things get dicey, and at 4 we need to consider major measures – social distancing, canceling mass gatherings, quarantining affected individuals and cities, and travel restrictions. This is everything that China did in the second month of the outbreak once they understood what they were dealing with, and is also the key to South Korea, Japan and Singapore’s success. Because some western governments did not take this seriously, they are now going to have to take extreme measures to stop this.

How many people will be infected?

The total proportion of the population that will be affected is called the final size of the epidemic, and there is an equation linking the final size to the basic reproduction number. This equation tells us that for influenza probably 40% of the population will be affected, but it also tells us that for epidemics with basic reproduction number over 2 basically the entire population will be affected. In the case of Japan that will mean 120 million people affected with a mortality rate of probably 0.4% (assuming the health care system handles such a ridiculous scenario), or about 500,000 deaths – 50% of the total number of deaths that occur in one year. The Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami killed 16,000 people and was considered a major disaster. It’s also worth considering that those 500,000 deaths would probably occur over 3-4 months, so over the time period they would be equivalent to probably doubling or tripling the normal mortality rate. That is a catastrophe by any measure, and although at the end of the epidemic “only” half a percent of the population will be dead, the entire population will be traumatized by it.

For a virus of this epidemicity with this kind of fatality rate, we need to take extreme measures to control it, and we need to take it very seriously as soon as it arrives in our communities. This virus cannot be contained by business as usual.

Essential supplies ready

What’s going on in Japan?

The number of cases and deaths in Japan remains quite small, and there has been some discussion overseas that Japan’s response has been poor and it is hiding the true extent of the problem. I don’t think this is entirely correct. Japan introduced basic counter-measures early on, when China was struggling and well before other countries, including cancelling events, delaying the start of the school year, introducing screening at airports and testing at designated facilities, working from home and staggering commuter trips to reduce crowding on trains. For example, work events I was planning to attend were cancelled 2-3 weeks ago, and many meetings moved online back then. Japan has a long history of hygiene measures during winter, and influenza strategies are in place at most major companies to reduce infection risk. Most museums, aquariums and shopping malls have always had hand sanitizer at the entrance, and Japan has an excellent network of public toilets that make hand washing easy. Many Japanese have always maintained a practice of hand-washing and gargling upon returning home from any outside trip, and mask wearing is quite common. Japan’s health system also has a fair amount of excess capacity, so it is in a position to handle the initial cases, isolate them and manage them. This has meant that the growth of the epidemic was slow here and well contained, although it was a little out of control in Hokkaido, where the governor declared a state of emergency (now ended). It is true that many cases are not being tested – hospitals do not recommend mild cases to attend for treatment, but to stay home and self isolate, and it is likely that mild cases will not be tested – but this is not a cover-up situation, rather an attempt to ration tests (which are not being fully utilized at the moment). There are not yet reports of emergency rooms or hospitals being overwhelmed, and things are going quite smoothly. I expect at some point the government will need to introduce stricter laws, but because of that early intervention with basic measures the epidemic appears to be under control here.

My self-isolation plan was kind of forced on me at the end of February, because I dislocated my kneecap at kickboxing in a sadly age-related way, will probably require reconstruction surgery, and am spending a lot of time trapped at home as a result. Actually that was the day that everyone else was panic buying toilet paper and so I was stuck at home with a dwindling supply of the stuff until my friends stepped up. I think most people in Japan have reduced their social activities (probably not as much as me!), and are spending less time in gatherings and events (almost of all which are canceled now), and so through that reduction in contacts plus aggressive contact tracing, the disease is largely controlled here.

Is the world over-reacting?

No. You will have heard no doubt various conservatives on Fox news and in some print outlets complaining about how the world has over-reacted and we should all be just going to the pub, perhaps you’ve seen some Twitter bullshit where a MAGA person proudly declares that they ate out in a crowded restaurant and they’ll do whatever they want because Freedumb. Those people are stupid and you shouldn’t trust them. This virus spreads easily and kills easily, and if it gets a stranglehold on your health system it will be an order of magnitude more deadly than it is right now. If you live in a sensible country (i.e. not the UK or the USA) your government will have consulted with experts and developed a plan and you should follow their recommendations and guidelines, because they have a sense of what is coming down the pipeline and what you need to do to stop it. Do the minimum you are asked to do, and perhaps prepare for being asked to do more. Don’t panic buy, but if you feel like strict isolation is coming you should start laying in supplies. Trust your friends and neighbours to help you, and don’t assume your government is bullshitting you (unless you’re in the UK or the USA, obviously). This is serious, and needs to be taken seriously.

When HIV hit the world our need to wear a condom was presented to us as a self-preserving mechanism. If you choose to circumcise your baby boy you’re probably doing so as a service to future him, not to all the women or men he might spread STIs to. But this virus isn’t like HIV. Your responsibility here isn’t to yourself, it’s to the older, frailer and less healthy members of your community who are going to die – and die horribly, I might add, suffocating with a tube in their throat after days of awful, stifled struggle – if this disease is allowed to spread. We all need to work together to protect the more vulnerable members of our community, and if we don’t react now we will lose a lot of the older people we grew up with and love.

So let’s all hunker down and get rid of this virus together!


fn1: This is a weird and counter-intuitive aspect of demography. Japan has the longest life expectancy in the world’s healthiest population, and one of the world’s highest mortality rates. Iraq, in contrast, would see half as many deaths in a normal year (without American, ah, visitors). This is because healthy populations grow old, and then die in huge numbers.

As sure as night follows day there has been another mass shooting in America, this time at a Walmart, where 20 people have been killed by a 21 year old white man who published a manifesto on 4chan. He turns out – shock – to have been a white supremacist who is concerned about Mexicans taking over Texas, and particularly worried about the possibility that it will flip Democratic (because Hispanics vote Democratic) and usher in an era of permanent Democrat rule (which is apparently a bad thing). You can find his manifesto here if you are up for reading this sort of stuff, and you can tell where he stands pretty quickly from his two opening sentences:

In general, I support the Christchurch shooter and his manifesto. This attack is a response to the Hispanic invasion of Texas. They are the instigators, not me. I am simply defending my country from cultural and ethnic replacement brought on by an invasion.

This dude is not happy about Hispanics taking over his country, and he has a plan. He says he has read The Great Replacement, a theory espoused by the dude who wrote The Camp of the Saints (Steve Bannon’s favourite book) and he thinks he needs to take action to protect his nation from being overrun by foreigners. Most of his manifesto is classic white supremacist nutjob stuff, though remarkably lucid for the genre and (by Fascist standards) relatively well argued. On Twitter, however, he is getting some traction amongst concerned leftists because he ascribes some environmental reasons for his actions, and some people are hailing him as the first eco-fascist shooter. For example, William Black writes:

This suggests that he has an environmental motive for his attack, and needs to kill foreigners to make sure that only Americans can enjoy the fruits of America’s fragile environment.  In response, someone else suggests that hyping the threat of global warming may have been a mistake:

If the right is turning to eco-fascism then it will put a new slant on all their activities and give them a new wedge to use against opponents of fascism; it also signals that they may have seriously upped their game, since until now ineffectual bullshit flailing against the “Chinese hoax” of global warming has been their thing. But how true is it that this guy is an eco-fascist? And was he really worried about global warming? His manifesto is 2,359 words long, and this is his entire comment on environmental issues:

The American lifestyle affords our citizens an incredible quality of life. However, our lifestyle Is destroying the environment of our country. The decimation of the environment is creating a massive burden for future generations. Corporations are heading the destruction of our environment by shamelessly overharvesting resources. This has been a problem for decades. For example, this phenomenon is brilliantly portrayed in the decades-old classic “The Lorax.” Water sheds around the country, especially in agricultural areas, are being depleted. Fresh water Is being polluted from farming and oil drilling operations. Consumer culture is creating thousands of tons of unnecessary plastic waste and electronic waste, and recycling to help slow this down is almost non-existent. Urban sprawl creates inefficient cities which unnecessarily destroys millions of acres of land. We even use god knows how many trees worth of paper towels just wipe water off our hands. Everything I have seen and heard in my short life has led me to believe that the average American isn’t willing to change their lifestyle, even if the changes only cause a slight inconvenience. The government is unwilling to tackle these issues beyond empty promises since they are owned by corporations. Corporations that also like immigration because more people means a bigger market for their products. I just want to say that I love the people of this country, but god damn most of y’all are just too stubborn to change your lifestyle. So the next logical step is to decrease the number of people in America using resources. If we can get rid of enough people, then our way of life can become more sustainable.

It’s 270 words, or just over 10% of his manifesto. He commits almost that much verbiage to describing the weapon he’s going to use. This isn’t exactly Unabomber-level commitment to the cause is it? In his ecological dissertation he does not mention global warming or climate change, but only overuse of resources, with a reference to The Lorax (which I don’t think has any words to say about global warming). His screed is essentially Malthusian, not environmentalist, and his position is relatively clear: since political change to reduce waste and overconsumption is hard, we need to cull the herd. This isn’t a new position in right-wing thought, although obviously attaching it to an AK-47 is an unpleasant rhetorical escalation. In the 1990s Australia had a right-wing anti-immigration party, Australians Against Further Immigration, who worked from this exact position, and it’s been a fixture of European fascism forever. But it’s not the centerpiece or even a major part of his manifesto: It’s bolted on the end of his piece, as an addendum to his main concern, which is the Great Replacement. He devotes about as much space to complaining about the role of corporations in undermining American workers through immigration – this is a theme all through the first two pages of his writing, covering the issue of automation and Universal Basic Income and how the presence of low-paid foreign workers will mess up the society-wide response to automation that he sees as necessary – and much of what he writes has a lot more to do with the National Conservatism[1] of Hurley and Carlson than it does to do with any kind of eco-fascism.

It’s also impossible to imagine that an American conservative at this time would break so much with conservative orthodoxy as to endorse global warming as real. That would basically alienate you from your entire political cohort, and would be a poison pill for all your political relationships. Now that his social media are shut down it is impossible to glean his opinions about this, but it should be clear from recent American political movements that it is almost impossible to be an American conservative and accept the reality of global warming, let alone take it seriously enough to kill people over.

This man is not an eco-fascist, but that does not mean that eco-fascism won’t come to America in time. As the climate crisis deepens we can expect all high-income nations to experience increasingly difficult environmental problems, and since the USA is particularly vulnerable to global warming we can expect to see it hit harder and earlier than say Europe. You can be sure that when it becomes impossible to avoid acknowledging the problem the American right will find a way to blame all the years of inaction on the left and/or Jews, and will react with its customary lack of humanity or sense to deal with the challenges global warming creates. But before that you can expect a long period of denialism and increasingly brutal treatment of refugees, foreigners, and ultimately poor and black people within US borders as resource crises strike (probably starting with water). I have previously reviewed the foundational text of modern American fascism, the Turner Diaries, and noted the extreme nihilism and violence of their vision, and in that book it is very clear what the American right’s response to resource pressures will be. On the one hand it is clear that they are willing to burn the entire world down rather than compromise their racial purity, and their solution to extreme privation is to force white people to compete in a brutal and murderous competition to gain access to the limited resources available. So we can expect the American right to further exclude refugees and migrants, to become more vicious in their treatment of “non-productive” minorities within America, and to enhance these cruelties while continuing to burn the fossil fuels that are causing the problem; and when they finally accept that it is too late, we can expect them to pit poor whites against each other to determine who gets to survive in the burning times.  I doubt we will see anything as enlightened as a violent fascist overthrow of corporate polluters in order to preserve the environment for the white race. If you doubt me about that, read the Turner Diaries and ask yourself what the movement’s leaders would do, given they all consider that to be the ur-text for their movement.

We have a long wait yet before eco-fascism comes to America, if it ever does, but in the meantime we have a very real and very dangerous fascist movement taking over the country. Don’t look to some weird eco-fascist fringe for the threat to the future of America and the world: look to the Republican party, which is producing all the intellectual and rhetorical support for these terrorists, and looking the other way while the country burns. And don’t get distracted: their only real interest at this time is race, and they have their eyes on the prize even if you don’t. So stay focused, and do everything you can to beat these people back before they burn down your country and our world.


fn1: Good choice of name there boys, you’ll go far.

Are you young, American, living in America and scared about where your country is headed? Want to get out before it all goes down? Are you worried about getting shot at school or work, or by the police? Don’t think that the healthcare situation is going to get better or even stay as bad as it is? Have a pre-existing condition and don’t know how you’re going to be able to afford medicines after you turn 26 (or even now)? Are you worried about Roe vs. Wade and pretty sure your reproductive rights are going down the tube in the next few years? Noticed that the new Georgia anti-abortion bill includes ectopic pregnancies, so is actually gynocidal? Are you poor and doubt you’ll ever be able to get into a good university and make a decent career, but don’t want to be stuck in an Amazon warehouse the rest of your life because working class work no longer pays in America? Are you black and don’t want to get shot by the police, or Jewish and a little bit worried about where those Proud Boys are taking your country?

Do you need to get out? This post outlines two strategies for a simple and easy way to get out of the USA, for people aged 16-21 who are either finishing high school or finishing university, and not sure what to do next. If you’re confident that even if the Dems win the next presidential election things still aren’t going to get better, you might want to consider one of these two strategies. Both involve leaving America for Japan, and this post is to tell you how.

Strategy 1: English Teacher

Lots of young people don’t know about this, but there are lots of private English teaching companies in Japan that are always looking for staff from native English speaking countries to work in them. To get a job at an English teaching company in Japan you need three basic qualifications: you need to be a native speaker, you need a bachelor’s degree, and you should still be in possession of a face[1]. Most of the big English teaching companies do recruitment tours in the USA, but they usually also have open recruitment on their websites. You can find them pretty easily on google. For a company like Aeon you will go to a day-long recruitment seminar that doubles as an interview, and usually you’ll get a job offer as a result. You just need to turn up looking presentable, act like you care, and be willing to work with kids. You do not need to be able to speak Japanese or have any knowledge of Japanese culture (though knowing more about Japan than “manga!” and “geisha!” would be helpful probably).

Once you get the job the English teaching company will place you in a random city in Japan, pay for your airfare, and organize an apartment for you. This may be a share house or it may be a one room. You’ll get paid probably 200-250k yen per month (about 1800 – 2000 USD) and will have to pay taxes and health insurance from that. Health insurance is affordable, and it covers everything: no pre-existing condition exemptions or any shit like that. It starts from the day you arrive in the country. Usually the company will help you set up bank account, phone etc., so even if you don’t speak Japanese you’ll be good to go. Once you arrive and get settled you can save a bit of money and after a few months you’ll be in a position to move somewhere you like, or change companies to a better one. If you speak Japanese because you were lucky enough to study it at high school you can maybe shift to a better job. But the key thing is you’ve landed in civilization, and you’ll be safe.

The salary isn’t great but it’s enough to save money if you don’t do dumb-arsed things, and you will be able to make occasional short trips in Asia on that salary. Japan is not an expensive country and especially if you aren’t in Tokyo or Osaka it’s a super cheap place to live. The working conditions at teaching companies aren’t great (typically some evening and weekend work, and your days off may not be guaranteed to be Saturday and Sunday) but they don’t have at-will firing over here and even though you’re foreign you have all the employment rights of a local, including unemployment benefits after a minimum period of time in the job. English teachers are generally considered to be the lowest of the low among foreigners living in Japan, for reasons you’ll understand within minutes of meeting your colleagues, but it’s better to be the lowest of the low in Japan than to be middle class in America. So do it!

If you’re a high school student this option isn’t open to you (these companies require a bachelor’s degree) but you can aim for it: they don’t care where your degree is from so you can attend a local low-cost uni (I believe you guys call this “community college”?) and still get accepted when you graduate. See my special notes for high school students below.

There are also similar companies in China and Korea (see my notes on other Asian countries below). There is also an Assistant Language Teacher program where you work in schools, which is apparently a little more demanding to get into. Google is your best friend here!

Strategy 2: Japan government scholarship

The Japanese government runs a large scholarship program for students from overseas, called the Japan Government Scholarship, also known as the MEXT scholarship or Monbusho scholarship. This is available for all education levels: undergraduate, masters or PhD. You apply through your embassy (the US website is here) about now. The scholarship pays your university fees, a monthly living allowance, and a return airfare. You can apply for this for your undergraduate studies, so you apply from high school and go straight to university study in Japan. Unless you are planning on studying certain topics (e.g. Japanese literature) you don’t need to be able to speak or read Japanese: they set a Japanese test during the application process but this is used to determine what level of training you need, not to screen you out. The amazing thing about MEXT scholarships is that they’re not very competitive – not many people know about them and not many people want to move to study in Japan – so even if you don’t have a stellar record you still have a chance. Also they don’t discriminate on race or economic background, as far as I know, and it’s a straight-up merit-based application. The allowance is not great – I think about 100k yen for undergrads and about 150k for postgrads – but you’ll get subsidized uni accommodation and won’t pay tax, so it’s perfectly viable. If you go for Masters you need to find a supervisor who teaches in English and isn’t an arsehole – this is a big challenge – but you can do it if you try. One big benefit of the MEXT scholarship at postgrad is you get a year as a “research student” during which you don’t study in the department you’ve chosen but instead just learn Japanese. You can get really good at Japanese this way if you pay attention. Another great thing is that once you’re in the MEXT program it’s easier to go to the next step – so you can go from undergraduate to masters to PhD. Theoretically you could go from 1st year undergraduate to the end of a post-doc on Japan government money, which would put you in Japan for 11 years and probably stand you in a good position for a permanent faculty position, which are like hens’ teeth in the USA but quite common here. ALSO, if you do undergraduate study here you have a very good chance of being able to get a job in a Japanese company when you graduate, probably quite a good one, and build a career here.

The application period is usually about now so get busy!

Special notes for high school students

Note that if you’re finishing high school you can target all of these strategies now. Apply for the MEXT scholarship and if you don’t get it, go to a local community college or whatever they’re called. Target one where you can study an Asian language, either Chinese, Korean or Japanese. Then apply for MEXT again at the end of your undergraduate, and if you don’t get it apply for an English-teaching company in whatever country you studied the language for. You can use this English teaching job as a base to find a job in whatever field you actually want to work, because you’ve got four years of language training under your belt and so should be able to speak the local language reasonably well. If this falls through you’re still okay because no matter how shit your degree was at that community college, a second language is a skill you can take to the bank. You can probably then find an okay job in a US company targeting that country. This means you’re still trapped in a failing state, but at least your attempt to get out didn’t doom you to work at Starbucks (though who knows, four years from now maybe America won’t have any industry except Starbucks).

Remember, if you get the MEXT scholarship you’re going to graduate from university with no debt, proficient in a second language, and with a full career path in Japan likely right there in front of you.

Notes on other Asian countries

Most Asian countries have the English-teaching option available – for sure you can get to China or Korea if you don’t want to go to Japan, and they all have approximately the same requirements. All three countries now have functioning health insurance systems and you won’t get shot in any of them. They’re all aging and need young people, and at least in Korea as well as Japan Americans are generally still viewed well (for now; this is changing). Obviously there are some issues about personal freedom in China and if things continue to go south in the US-China relationship you might not feel safe from reprisals from the government. Other countries like Thailand, Vietnam etc. also have English-teaching jobs but I’m not sure about the pay and conditions – you might find you can’t save money in these countries and it becomes a kind of trap. I don’t know. But any of the high-income Asian countries are good places to teach English.

China also offers scholarships for overseas students through the CSC. The Chinese education system is very good and if you get a degree at a good Chinese university you’re probably getting a better education than you’d expect in any American uni. I don’t know if the CSC offers scholarships to Americans (since, let’s face it, you guys suck) or what the long-term consequences of that will be for your career in either country, but it could be worth investigating. You might also want to consider Singapore, which has excellent universities, but I have no idea how it works.

A note on the long-term risks of English teaching

You can make a life time career as an English teacher in Japan but it won’t be well paid and you’ll remain permanently lower middle class, which is not a big deal over here (Japan is an equitable country) but also not the best working life to pursue. But most importantly, if you spend more than a few years as an English teacher straight out of uni, your employability in your home country will take a nose dive, because you have no skills or experience relevant to a real job. So you need to make an exit plan if you want to return to the west. One option is to get an English as a second language (ESL) masters (you can do this online) and try to move into teaching English at uni, which pays slightly more and has a bit more prestige, but is a slightly riskier career (it can mean a permanent career as an adjunct, which is tough). Another option is to try and jump ship to a real company using whatever skills you’ve got but this can take time and may not lead you to a good place. If your Japanese is good you can maybe shift to being a standard office worker, but if you have no Japanese you need to bear in mind that English teaching is a trap if you do it for more than a few years. Bear in mind that Japan is aging fast, the pool of available workers is dropping in size, and as time goes on opportunities for foreigners here (even foreigners with weak language skills) are only going to grow. Also contrary to what you’ve heard (see below) Japan is becoming more and more open and welcoming to foreigners, even under supposedly militarist Prime Minister Abe, so things will just get easier as time passes. It’s worth risking for a year or two to try and build an escape plan, and if it doesn’t work out what have you lost? Just be ready to jump out if you see that trap closing before it’s too late.

Why Japan?

I’m recommending this escape plan because I know Japan: I live here and I know it’s a good place to live. You’ve probably heard that it’s expensive, treats foreigners badly and is very inward-looking. None of this is true. You’re not going to experience much racism at all, if you’re a woman you’re not going to get sexually assaulted on the train, and it’s not an expensive place to live. Rent is affordable even in Tokyo on an English teacher’s wage, your health insurance is fixed at a small proportion of your salary and is always affordable, food is good and cheap, and you can live a good life here even on low wages. You can’t live an American life of huge housing, a car, an assault rifle and all the home-delivered pizza you can eat but that’s a good thing, not a bad thing: those are the reasons your country is killing the planet and itself.

If you live in Japan you will be safe, you will be healthy, and you’ll be able to build a life for yourself even on a low income. If you want to live here long term you’ll need to learn the language (which is boring and bothersome to do); you may find that as a foreigner you are not going to be able to ascend to the peak of your career here no matter what it is. It may be hard for you to buy a place here either because your low salary precludes saving a lot of money for a deposit, or the bank won’t loan you money if you don’t have permanent residency. You won’t be able to afford to go back to America a lot unless you get out of the English teaching trade, and you will be restricted to short visits to nearby Asian countries. You’ll probably have to work hard and if you choose the wrong company after university (or the wrong post-graduate supervisor) you’ll be bullied and overworked. These are risks of moving here! But you’ll definitely have healthcare, you’ll have no risk of being shot by either crazy white guys or police, if you’re a woman you can walk safely at night no matter what time or how deserted the streets, and no matter what you earn people will show you the respect you deserve as a human being. And the government is not going crazy, nor will it.

So if you’re young and scared and worried about your future in America, and you really want to get out, consider these two strategies, and get out while you still can.


fn1: Actually I’m not sure if they care about whether you have a face. But just to be sure, apply now before some lunatic gets a chance to shoot you in the face.

It’s just not cricket …

It’s that time of the year again, and the newspapers are full of reports about the Superbowl. Vox has been flooded with articles about why we hate the Patriots or why players keep getting bigger, and everyone is expected to have an opinion on this sport. Apparently this year’s effort was extra boring, and the half-time adverts were crap, and the Maroon 5 dude revealed that he has a tattoo in Times New Roman font[1]. This year I didn’t bother with this whole thing, because I have tried to get into American Football and I just simply cannot. I have tried, and I just can’t really enjoy it.

This is a bit of a surprise to me, because I can enjoy most sports if I understand them. Indeed, I put in a bit of effort over the past two years to learn the rules of NFL, I spent time watching matches (which are broadcast live here in Japan if you have cable tv, and which on replay are stripped of adverts and quite easy to watch), I put a bit of effort into studying some of the rules and trying to figure out what was going on. It’s my view that the single biggest reason most people don’t enjoy most sports is that they simply don’t know the rules, and that if a sport is played well by elite athletes and you understand the rules you will probably enjoy it. So I was surprised when I tried to learn the rules of NFL and I still found it simply unenjoyable. I have tried to find reports from others about why they don’t enjoy NFL, but there are precious few, or they are reports like this one that don’t really seem to explain the game’s problems. So I thought I would write a post about why I can’t get into NFL. Perhaps someone will comment to give their own opinion, or to explain why I’m wrong (nicely, I hope!) or perhaps not, but here I would like to outline some of my reasons.

Here I am not going to waste time talking about the many political problems of the NFL – the blackouts, the teams’ insatiable demands for government money, the racist team names, the fact that college football players aren’t paid, the disgraceful treatment of cheerleaders, the concussion scandals, the awful mismanagement of the knee issue or the blatant disgusting militarization of the whole thing – which are well known and are a good reason to boycott it on principle, but not an explanation for why the game itself is simply not enjoyable. I also don’t intend to talk about this as “my favourite sport is better than yours” or to suggest that NFL players aren’t great athletes or that rugby dudes are tougher than NFL dudes or anything silly like that. I thought I should like NFL – I like ball sports with heavy contact, I approve of violent sport, and I like watching men smash each other, and I enjoy most other ball sports when I watch them – but I don’t enjoy it. I also don’t intend to tell people what sports they shouldn’t like, or laugh at people for watching weird shit – if you like snooker or darts or curling that’s all cool and not my business – but I wanted to try and pin down why I don’t enjoy NFL, and see what other people have to say about that. For the record, my favourite sports in approximate order would be kickboxing/MMA/boxing, rugby, high quality English premier league soccer, AFL, some olympic-level sports, lower quality soccer, and then a bunch of other stuff in no particular order. I’m not anti-sport, and I’m not opposed to violent sport (I thoroughly oppose any efforts to ban boxing, for example, on pure civil liberties grounds). I also have done kickboxing (and other martial arts) for 25 years, fought in an amateur fight once, and enjoy regular training with rough men. I’m not squeamish about violent sport. So, here are my reasons, in no particular order.

  • The weird stops and starts: I really cannot get used to the strange way the game stops, waits, everyone changes, and then it restarts. It doesn’t feel like sport to me, and it all feels strangely pre-determined. It feels more like work than sport. I just can’t get into the pre-organized changing of sides and ordering of attack and defense. Weird, given I am into turn-based combat in RPGs, but there you go.
  • The lack of ebb and flow: This is a big one for me and I think the single biggest spoiler. When the QB gets sacked or a pass is incomplete the game just … stops. No one fights for the ball, there is very rarely a change in direction of the attack, and it seems impossible that the flow of the game would change several times. When you watch soccer or rugby there is a constant shift and flow of possession, attack and defense, and no reprieve for either team when they have or don’t have the ball. If an NFL team is defending at 4th and goal, there is no sense in which they are under the cosh as they would be in a concerted soccer or rugby attack – they just have to foil one more play and then they are guaranteed the ball. Worse still, the attacking team don’t need to worry about the possibility that a pass will be interrupted or that they will miss the pass, because there is no penalty for this in the flow of the game. The only way the flow changes is if someone intercepts and catches the ball or a player straight drops it and the opposition scoop it up. This gives the game a really dead flavour. Nobody is risking anything, nobody is pressed, strategy isn’t built on what-ifs. So many times you get the 5th play and the team brings on a whole different set of players to punt, because there is this regular process that doesn’t change, shift or move around. It’s weird and I cannot think of any other sport except perhaps cricket which is so completely lacking in these sudden shifts of play.
  • The weird timing: There is something really strange about the way that time is calculated in NFL, as if time were not a thing at all. Teams have time-outs during which they keep playing, a one hour game seems to take 3 hours to play, the last 5 minutes just goes on forever, and every player has to be insanely careful about the implications for timing of e.g. an incomplete pass vs. being pushed out of bounds. I appreciate that rules are rules but why do there have to be so many weird and complex ways of simply keeping track of time? In any other game it’s simple: time passes at its usual rate until the game is over, and injuries are handled either by stopping the clock when they happen or adding time on. I don’t understand why there have to be so many weird ways of keeping track of time.
  • The strangely hypocritical rules: The weird timing brings me to the most frustrating thing I have ever witnessed in sport – a player being penalized for throwing a ball down in frustration and wasting 3 seconds of time, right before the game cuts to 2 minutes of adverts. What is going on with that? Why is time-wasting punished harshly in a game that takes 3 hours to play an hour’s football? Similarly, why is it a terrible offense to touch someone’s helmet but completely cool to hit them with a head-high tackle that is guaranteed to cause serious injury? It’s so pernickety, so finnicky, and so arbitrary.
  • The enormously complex rules: Most games have a simple set of penalties for all infringements, with at most two levels of escalation to deal with more serious incidents. But NFL has this intense system of penalties which involve decisions about whether to reset the downs and whether to penalize with distance, and seem to have an enormously complex set of rules that can be broken. It also seems in comparison to other games to have a lot of indecipherable decision points about basic aspects of basic gameplay, such as what constitutes a catch or pass interference. Every game has ambiguities and inconsistencies, but NFL seems to be consistent only in its ambiguities and complexity. It can be frustrating watching rugby and having to depend heavily on the referee’s judgment, but this pales to insignificance compared to the opacity of referee decisions in NFL.
  • The action is everywhere at once: When a play starts there is action happening all across the line and further downfield, and it’s very hard to follow all of it. I think this also means that in every play there are multiple infractions and it’s just luck if the referees see them. This is fine if complexity is your thing but it’s a uniquely weird experience that this is a ballgame yet almost all the action is off the ball.
  • The messy sideline situation: It really weirds me out that for the whole game there is this unruly mob of random people standing all along the sideline. Hundreds of people just shuffling around doing their thing. It’s so messy and weird. Every other ballgame has allocated places – a bunker or a coach’s area or something – but in NFL everyone is standing right down by the sideline crowding the game and just being messy. I guess it’s necessary because of the constant substitutions and changes of team (and we wouldn’t want to waste time!!!) but it’s just weird to me, like a pitch invasion is constantly being threatened.
  • The specialization: Every game has its specialist players but the level of specialization in NFL seems extreme, and not really much fun to watch. Vox tells me this wasn’t always the case, and that when substitutions were allowed more freely this led to the growth of specialization. It’s particularly focused on the quarterback, and I have never seen a game as focused on a single position as NFL. I guess this is a nice analogy for America’s political system, which is obsessively focused on the actions of one man, and I think it’s just as frustrating in sport as in politics. What kind of team game boils down to the decisions of one man? A weird one.
  • The weird camp machismo: I know it’s a bit of a cliche to say this but NFL players are really really camp, and it’s weird that Americans think they look super macho. I recall watching an interlude in a Japanese broadcast[2], and the American review was focused on some player from some team and talking about how incredibly tough and powerful he is. While the narrator was going on about this the camera was doing a slow-motion reel of this dude walking along, helmet in hand, with aggressive and threatening music playing. It was all a big and theatrical build-up to describe how aggressive and manly this dude was. The dude in question was walking slowly along the sideline with his shirt rolled up and tucked into his chest armour, showing off his powerful abs. So basically this super macho dude was walking along in spandex tights and a midriff top, and I’m meant to think that this is tough and not camp. It just doesn’t work for me. Don’t get me wrong, I know these guys are hard as nails, but what is wrong with Americans that they confuse camp and macho? You see the same thing in WWE, which is outrageously camp, and in super hero movies, which are wall-to-wall spandex and glowsticks. I guess there’s a reason that the players have to wear tight spandex tights with gussets, and have a towel hanging out of their back pocket that makes them look like a glistening furry or something, but I don’t know what that reason is and I suspect I wouldn’t be convinced even if it were explained to me. I just can’t get into the American vision of macho, and I think there’s a deep cultural insight somewhere in the fact that a country whose politics is steeped in misogyny and homophobia has so much difficulty distinguishing between camp and macho.
  • It’s dangerous by design: As I said, I’m into violent sports, but I’m not into sport that is designed to damage its participants. Even boxing has limits on the amount of damage its players are allowed to sustain. But much of NFL seems to be designed to damage the players, or specifically allows tactics that are at their most effective when designed to hurt. The bit where the linesmen crash into each other is obviously dangerous by design, but also the complete lack of any sanction for head-high tackles and neck grips means that players are rewarded for injuring each other. With players getting bigger and stronger every year, and no limit on their strength due to exhaustion as the game wears on, it’s inevitable that people will be seriously injured as a necessary consequence of playing the game. This is particularly shit if you’re a college football player who isn’t even getting minimum wage for your work, you’re betting your whole economic future on making it to the next tier, and then the game fucks you up because that is what the game is designed to do. Most sports have a pretty sharp pyramid shape and most people fall by the wayside and never make it to the top, but to be wrecked before you get anywhere good because that is what the game is designed to do isn’t very fair. Other games have introduced specific systems or rule changes to minimize the risk to players, without necessarily changing the overall level of violence or aggression, but NFL seems uniquely unwilling to do this. There’s a limit to how much I can enjoy a sport I know is designed to ruin its participants, and there are so many moments when the dangerous acts are gratuitous. It’s possible that NFL, being dangerous by design, can’t be changed, but in that case it will likely die as American parents forbid their kids from playing it. I won’t miss it if it does.
  • There’s no endurance penalty: In rugby and soccer players have to play for the full length of the game, which means that they have to balance the energy they put into individual plays against the need to go the distance. This is a natural part of any competitive system in nature. But in NFL the constant switches of teams mean that players don’t have to balance these things, and don’t get exhausted near the end as far as I can tell. This takes a lot of tension out of the game, and also eliminates one form of extreme effort from the enjoyment of the game. Particularly in rugby and boxing the last 10 minutes are a test of endurance and will as much as anything else, and losing teams have the chance to win something back by ruthlessly capitalizing on mistakes that happen when people are exhausted. The game also has a natural sense of having run its course, as the players are completely done for at the end, rather than having come to a bitter end because a weird unbalanced and unnatural clock finally reached 0. I also don’t really feel like I’m there alongside the players when they aren’t even sweating. It makes all the drama seem manufactured and culturally mandated rather than arising from the game, an impression that is simply reinforced by the injection of high drama through the narrative efforts of the announcers rather than arising organically from the contest itself.

Put together these things make the game seem dry and sterile to me, a manufactured contest rather than a real game. It doesn’t help that there aren’t many teams and a short season, which just increases the sense that all the drama is manufactured. The crowd also doesn’t have anything resembling the passion of similarly-sized European soccer crowds. Also what’s going on with every player saying which university they’re from when they introduce themselves in the pre-game team review? That’s super weird.

So those are the reasons I can’t enjoy NFL. Apart from “dangerous by design” I don’t think any of them are objectively bad things – they’re just things I don’t like, and obviously you’re welcome to not not like them. I would be happy to hear explanations or alternative interpretations of some of these things (except “you’re dumb for not liking this thing you don’t like”), or other comments on things that stop you enjoying this game. Also, tips on how to enjoy it! (Except “drink more” because the games are broadcast in the morning here).


fn1: And he’s not even a millenial!

fn2: Because Japan doesn’t broadcast the American ads and doesn’t play its own (because Japanese tv isn’t as rapacious as American I guess) they fill the advertising breaks with a review of the previous week’s games, which is prepared by the NFL. I guess the NFL has to prepare this for its overseas affiliates because we aren’t used to intense advertising and need something to fill the space. Or maybe it’s some weekly show. Anyway, it features weird overblown narration with a mixture of faux-highbrow imagery and bad puns, and we also get to see a lot of the sideline behavior of the players, which is frankly fucking awful.

The new documentary Fyre, available on Netflix, describes the events surrounding the collapse of the infamous Fyre festival in 2017. The collapse of this festival gained worldwide notoriety because the festival was billed as a super luxury elite event full of models and influencers and famous people, which only the very rich could afford, but which ended with the “elite” guests having to camp in the dark in emergency response tents and eat soggy sandwiches before they fled home. It was covered extensively in the media and was often covered as a kind of disaster for the instagram age, a festival as fake as the world we build on social media, and a moral story about the collapse of truth in an era of influencers and instafame. It was a particularly attractive FUBAR because it involved rich people being scammed out of their money for what on its surface appears to be a completely vainglorious and shallow status symbol event.

I think a lot of that narrative was either untrue or a pernicious interpretation of the evils of social media. This documentary goes some way to helping to clarify what really happened and helps us to understand who some of the real victims and real villains were, but I think ultimately it fails because it does not go far enough or deep enough, and to some extent it is complicit with the scammers. It has three key flaws: 1) it fails to really contest the accounts of the organizers; 2) it does not give much of a voice to the guests; and 3) it does not offer any deeper commentary on the social media aspects of the SNAFU. I want to talk about each of these three problems and give a little opinion about what this festival tells us about social media and scams, again returning to my old saw that there is nothing new about the evils of social media, and no special skills are required to understand and deal with the problems social media creates.

First though I would like to say that although this documentary is flawed it is worth watching: it will give a much more detailed understanding of what happened and help to put the events into their proper perspective. I did not know, for example, that the organizer of the festival had been involved in a previous scam with all the same players; that a website and twitter account started to debunk the festival long before it happened; and that a great many of the attendees were not the super rich. Some of these points are not really clarified or explored properly in the documentary, but if you watch carefully and pay attention you can see these facts.

The first problem of the documentary is that it is highly dependent on footage of the entire project planning that was taken by the organizers themselves. I don’t know why they filmed themselves but it appears that the boss of the whole thing, Billy McFarland, has something of an obsession with filming his work – even at the end of the movie when he is on bail and living in a penthouse running a new direct mail scam he is filming himself doing it, which is weird. But it seems to me that in order to get this footage the documentary makers had to treat many of the organizers with kid gloves, which gives many of them the opportunity to provide self-serving and I suspect highly biased accounts of their own responsibility for the disaster. Four figures in particular – Carolla the financer, an old guy who has backed Billy McFarland for too long and has 30 years’ showbiz experience, the key guy responsible for logistics and the key guy responsible for booking acts – are up to their necks in the scam and it’s just not believable that they weren’t part of it. When one of them says that Billy would keep going away and finding new investments, it’s obvious that he is scamming new investors and they must know – and sure enough it turns out that he has been lying egregiously in documents to investors. Other people not so close to Billy were quick to get out when they realized the shitstorm that was coming, and one guy who saw right through it was able to get direct photos of the development of the festival and could clearly see it was going to be an omnishambles, yet these four couldn’t see it? Some of them, in particular Carolla and Ja Rule, were involved in Billy McFarland’s previous business, Magnises, which was clearly and obviously a scam, so it really stretches credibility when they tell the documentary makers that they didn’t know what was going on and kept not seeing the wood for the trees even when it was really clear what was going to happen. It’s very clear that Billy McFarland has a powerful effect on these people and is good at keeping them disoriented and confused, and he is always ratcheting up the chaos and demands so that they don’t have time to get clear-headed perspective on the damage he is doing. It is also really clear that he has found typically devious ways to keep them entangled in his dramas so that not only they but a lot of people who depend on them will be damaged if they back away; but these people have been around Billy McFarland long enough to know that this is his shtick, and to find ways out. There is a story in here about how incredibly dangerous people with personality disorders are when they have access to money and authority; but there is also a moral tale about the importance of not enabling these people, and of ultimately being willing to take the risk of walking away from them. This documentary shows in the end that when you enable the disordered leadership in order to protect those around you, all you really do is set those people up for a bigger fall when the narcissists’s schemes finally collapse. There’s a definite cautionary tale for Trump’s America in this documentary, but unfortunately by not properly challenging the stories of Billy’s fellow travelers the documentary fails to draw the proper lessons about the dangers of sticking with a leader with personality disorder.

The collapse of Fyre festival was a social media spectacle that was turned into a morality play about millennial idiocy by the media, but it’s worth bearing in mind that there were real victims of this farce. The documentary makes a good case for the low-paid workers of the Bahamas and the businesspeople who were left out of pocket on the island by the scammers, but it does not put much time into the feelings and experiences of the guests who paid to come to the festival and got scammed. It even manages to broadcast Billy McFarland’s point (made through Ja Rule) that nobody got injured or died. Nonetheless, the people who attended this festival turned up to an island far from home and got dumped on a fake beach in the dark with nowhere to stay except damaged tents with sodden mattresses, barely any food, and no idea what to do to get home. A large number were locked inside the airport without food and water for a night while the authorities tried to figure out a way to get them off the island. The fact that they were rich beautiful people doesn’t lessen the fear and hardship that they had to endure for a day or two while they found a way out of this scam – they were poorly mistreated. The documentary finds a couple of customers who were willing to speak on camera about their experience, and it uses a bit of social media footage of other victims, but it does manage to build up an image of these people as wealthy people who were paying for an elitist experience. It even shows a clip of a beautiful girl (possibly one of the influencers who was supposed to get free villa accommodation, though the documentary is careful not to reveal who the people in the social media clips are) saying that the “private” plane was “worse than the lowest class in economy”, which makes her seem kind of snobby from her tone. On twitter today I have been seeing people saying that what these people were really paying for was exclusivity, buying an experience that no one else could have, but I did not get that impression from the documentary: they were pretty clearly paying for the experience of a party on a beautiful beach, and paying for a luxury experience. Everything was marketed as a luxury experience and that’s what the guests were paying for. They weren’t necessarily driven by a desire for exclusivity. After all, they knew lots of other people were going to be there and fundamentally, like with any festival, wanted to go there and share the experience with those people. Any music event is never about exclusivity – you go to live events so you can share the experience with other people. But worse still, this documentary slides over the possibility that actually a lot of people weren’t that wealthy, and had actually been scammed out of real hard-earned money, not disposable income. You can’t tell from the people they interview, or from the prices they display on the documentary screens, but the lowest price tickets were between $500 and $1500. It’s not beyond a person on a normal income to spend a large chunk of their savings on this festival, so that they can have this experience. Looking at the people on the social media footage the documentary shows, and judging by their clothes and reaction, a lot of these people were not throwing away a casual weekend’s cocaine money to drink champagne off models’ tits in an exclusive villa: they were dumping a large portion of their hard-won savings on a chance to enjoy their favourite music in a geodesic luxury tent on a beautiful beach. Now, I have experienced a really enjoyable music festival on a secluded beach (the San-in Beach Party), and it really is a very nice experience, and to do it in luxury on a beach in the Bahamas is something that a lot of people would consider worth burning their savings on. It’s well-established that millennials, knowing they can’t afford a house or a stable retirement, choose to spend what limited savings they can scrape together on experiences like this. No matter how much David Brooks might sneer at their ephemeral spirit, it’s no reason to scam them of their hard-earned cash. That’s not exactly Robin Hood stuff is it? But by carefully avoiding investigating these peoples’ backgrounds, and not trying to do any deeper investigation into who went and why, the documentary falls into the usual traps that bedevil any attempt to explore modern youth culture, and makes it seem once again like a bunch of entitled millenial trustafarians got what they deserved.

Finally, the documentary does not properly explore the central role of social media in the debacle, and what the implications of that might be. The Fyre festival’s initial hype was built up by a bunch of influencers – perhaps 400 – all posting a picture of a blank orange tile to their instagram accounts at the same time, with a link to the Fyre page, where people could see videos of these influencers cavorting in the sea. It was a masterfully done advertising campaign, that used the viral power of instagram and other social media to multiply the value of each user’s post. But let’s not be coy about how this worked: they sank an enormous amount of money on this advertising. The documentary reports that the top girl in the influencer group they gathered, Bella Hadid, was paid $250,000 for that one post. They set up a website that was basically just a collection of movies, and then through a very well designed visual campaign they got a lot of people interested in their product. The documentary reported that in the aftermath of the Fyre farce the US government introduced new rules for social media stars, requiring them to indicate when they’re being paid to advertise product, and the documentary suggested that their behaviour had been duplicitous. The documentary also suggested that they should have done due diligence on the product they were selling, but this point was rebutted by some of the people involved who pointed out – fairly, I think – that these girls are models not scientists, and it’s not their job to vet the quality of a good they’re paid to advertise – that’s what regulatory authorities are for. Fundamentally what happened here is that Billy McFarland paid them to market a scam that neither they, the buyers, any of the contractors in the Bahamas, or apparently any of his colleagues, recognized was a scam. I don’t think under these circumstances these girls are the first people who should be blamed.

More importantly, none of what this advertising campaign did was new. It girls have been around since Audrey Hepburn (Holly Golightly was a classic It-girl), and in the era of the big people magazines girls like Paris Hilton were huge news, without ever making a single social media post. The fact that you can be an it-girl on Instagram doesn’t change anything, and although Bella Hadid is more ubiquitous in the feeds of her followers than Paris Hilton might have been, she is no less ubiquitous in popular media than Paris was. I am old enough to remember the Paris Hilton era, and let me tell you, there is nothing that Instagram could teach her about how to get rich and famous by being nothing and doing nothing. Yes the Kardashians’ famous-for-fame-itself lifestyle and business model is repulsive, but so was Paris Hilton’s. Similarly the problem of these girls advertising products without announcing they’re paid: it may shock my younger reader(s) to learn this, but a mere 20 years ago all the Hate Radio stars in Australia – Alan Jones, John Laws, that repulsive dude in South Australia, and the racist pig in Western Australia – were all advertising products all the time on the radio without telling you they were paid. They had a conversational tone in which they told you personally that they used this car oil, and never once mentioned that this conversation was paid for. This scandal blew up in the late 1990s and you should have seen the entitled whining they did when they were forced to admit on air that they were paid to make their endorsements. Now as far as I know, the late 1990s was approximately 60 years after the widespread adoption of radio. So it took approximately 10 times as long for the authorities to wise up to payola on the radio as it did for them to crack down on these pretty young things on Instagram. I’m sure that their haste to crack the whip on those girls has nothing at all to do with their age and gender … and of course all the top 40 charts and bullshit rankings on MTV and radio charts are still completely bought and paid for by the music industry, but we should worry that occasionally a model will slip in an unannounced endorsement on Instagram… No, as I have said before, the problem here is not social media – it’s you. Indeed there were even social media accounts dedicated to revealing the truth about Fyre but they didn’t take off – because nobody cared about the truth. If you cannot tell that a party on a remote island in the Bahamas where you get to cavort with models in a villa with a private plane for a couple of thousand bucks is smoke and mirrors, you won’t be saved by seeing that scam advertised on tv instead of Facebook. And if a slimy con artist decides to lie to you that he has villas for 5,000 people on that beach when in fact there are no houses on the entire island, it doesn’t matter if he does it on TV, Instagram or a message written in the sky – he’s a liar and a con artist, and the problem is that he lied. Unfortunately, while this documentary does make clear much of the way in which he built his lies, it also glosses over the simple fact that the world is full of liars and rubes in favour of the easy lure of social media panic, and schadenfreude at rich people getting duped.

So, watch this documentary if you want a more detailed account of that fateful party and the garbage fire it became, but don’t let yourself be fooled by the easy targeting of social media and rich entitled millenials. The story of Fyre is as old as the story of liars, and our natural faith in the honesty of our fellow humans. Whether you lie to someone’s face, on tv, on Instagram, or on stone tablets, a lie is a lie: and Fyre was a bonfire of stupid, vicious lies that left a lot of people hurt. Let’s hope we’ve all learnt from it, and that this documentary will help us all ensure it does not happen again.

They’ve taken the throne
They’re under my skin
Patience won’t be the end of me
They’re thick as thieves

Beware little girl,
The world’s full of bad men
Beware little boy,
The world’s full of bad men

Bad Men, the Eden House

Trump’s latest disgusting faux-pas, in which he told a 7 year old girl that Santa isn’t real, is surely the final and definitive proof that he is a genuinely horrible human being. Not horrible in the sense that his policies are disgusting – we all knew that – but in the sense that he is just a really awful person. Telling a 7 year old girl that Santa isn’t real is something that General Bison would do – it’s comic book super villain stuff, real people don’t do it. But Trump did. This is the latest in a long and enlightening series of episodes which show that he is just a disgusting person. He is a philanderer who takes pride in it and openly admits that he is using power to get what he wants; he cheats on his wife and breaks laws he thinks don’t matter to cover it up; he hates dogs; he claims to love his country but can’t draw the flag or remember the words to the national anthem; he hates Christmas or funerals because they aren’t about him; he made his name on the illusion that he is a tough boss who fires people who fail him but cannot bring himself to actually fire anyone; he feels a natural affinity for autocrats and murderous dictators; he will change all his opinions on a dime if someone tells him they like him; he judges women entirely by their appearance and men purely by how much they posture; he has been bankrupt four times and thinks that is clever; he lies about how rich he is; he doesn’t care at all about the truth of anything except the one truth that he is important; he is 71 years old but cannot shake hands like an adult; he doesn’t understand time zones or know the names of many foreign countries; he dodged Vietnam on the basis of “bone spurs” that were diagnosed by one of his father’s tenants; he is racist, sexist, and vulgar; he eats his steak well done with ketchup. This man hates dogs. He is an awful human being. If you were to look for a way to teach a young man to be a good man, you could show him Trump’s life works and tell him “don’t be like this” and you would be guaranteed to be setting that young man on a good path. It’s so telling about Trump that the only time he has told the truth in the past year is when he is telling a 7 year old girl that Santa isn’t real.

Trump isn’t the only such horrible man in our lives at this time though – we are ruled by them. Brett Kavanaugh is a horrible man, a stinking alcoholic who obviously did what he was accused of doing, and covered it up with bluster and lies and aggrieved tears; Newt Gingrich and all the other men who pressed the impeachment on Bill Clinton have been pushed out of their positions because of sexual misconduct, and are awful men (one of them was Kavanaugh, who devised a slurry of intrusive sexual questions for Clinton but cried when much milder questions were directed at him); Ted Cruz endorsed Trump after Trump insulted his wife and father; Paul Ryan lied about his marathon times, and has made a career as a “serious political thinker” while serving up only flim-flam joke policies to the American public; Mike Pence refuses to be alone with a woman who is not his wife. But they aren’t just an American phenomenon: Boris Johnson once tried to have a journalist beaten up for publishing bad things about him, is a serial philanderer and a joke; Michael Gove is an idiot and a liar; Tony Abbot ran a vicious misogynist campaign of abuse against Julia Gillard and would have brought the entire edifice down around him if he thought it would help, and he told a politician once that he would give them anything “except his arse” if they would make him prime minister. Then there is the cavalcade of dodgy christian fundamentalist politicians in America who adopt a “broad stance” in men’s toilets, or traffic in women, or offer up the worst apologia for rape and sexual assault;  the Australian Nationals politicians who have been revealed to be grubby philanderers as they ponce about the country talking about “family values” and voted against gay marriage because it would “damage the sanctity” of an arrangement they were cheerfully traducing; and let’s not forget the conga line of sexual abusers and rapists in the media, the Les Moonves’s and Harvey Weinsteins and Roger Ailes’s who determine what we read and what we see. And can you look at Mark Zuckerberg and not think that beneath that jeans- and t-shirt exterior beats the heart of a determinedly evil man?

We live in a time when we are ruled by awful men.

It wasn’t always like this. There was a time when our politicians either didn’t parade their failed virtue in front of us, demanding that we ban abortion or sex outside of marriage or child rape while they did it – they either didn’t do it, or left those policies vaguely undefined. There was a time when politicians had basic human decency, and would behave well around others even if their policies were unpleasant. John Howard’s policies were atrocious, he wasted 10 years of Australia’s best economic growth on buying votes from middle class Australians, and he instituted the modern policy of abuse of asylum seekers, but he would never tell a child that santa isn’t real and he never sexually assaulted anyone. Paul Keating was an arrogant prick but he genuinely cared about the rights of the poor, of working people, and of Aboriginal people. His policies might not always have helped the people he cared about but he tried – and he at least had a sense of humour. John Major may have squandered the chance to achieve a Tory follow-up to Thatcher’s economic policies, and he may have presided over growing inequality and ill health, but he was a bland and tired man who never raped anyone. It’s a low bar but let’s repeat it: John Major never raped anyone. His successor face-fucked a dead pig.

Where did these awful men come from? Slate attempts to offer something of an explanation for them, defining them as the Old Boys, but their explanation is too focused on America (of course). It doesn’t explain the horrors of Boris Johnson in Britain, Scott Morrison in Australia (or Barnaby fucking Joyce!), those eastern European wannabe despots who are despicable and awful nobodies; it doesn’t have much to say about Erdogan, though perhaps he isn’t actually awful (how old school to only be politically evil, and not also personally despicable!). How is that so many of the men who rule or want to rule the English speaking world are so awful? Not just that their policies are traditionally right wing but that they themselves eschew the basic principles of being a decent man? Is there something wrong with the protestant English-speaking world, that throws up these horrific men? Is there something unique to the democratic systems of the English-speaking world? I wonder if perhaps the winner-take-all nature of our political systems encourages these men, and that perhaps explains why democracies that require coalition-building don’t have them. So they don’t appear in France, Germany, New Zealand, or Japan, because in those systems you have to be able to be liked by people who disagree with you – perhaps then it’s telling that in the one time Australian politicians had to negotiate a coalition the awful man lost and the supposedly bland woman won.

I also wonder if it is something about the right wing of politics? After all, it’s usually the right that attracts the racists and sexists and secret hitlerophiles, so maybe that’s where the awful people go? But that doesn’t explain Kevin Rudd, who kept his awfulness under a bushel until he had power and then burnt so bright before Gillard extinguished his awful light. It doesn’t explain Blair, the hideous vampire. It doesn’t explain Mark Latham, who broke a taxi driver’s arm and spent his early dotage ranting in right-wing journals about all the labour party members who (thankfully for labor and the country) dumped him before he could apply his unique taxi-side negotiating skills to the country. The jury of course is out on Xi Jinping, about whom rumours of womanizing in his youth circulate but who finds it very easy to maintain a squeaky clean image, either because he is or because he controls the media with an iron fist.

So how did we get to be ruled by all these awful men?

I wonder if there is something buried in democracy, some awful bug, which makes it vulnerable to these shoddy personalities, these narcissistic vultures. Or at least if the kind of first past the post, winner-takes-all democracy of the English-speaking world is ultimately as vulnerable to takeover by narcissistic, personality-disordered thugs as any dictatorial system. Maybe it takes 20 years longer, but maybe it’s just as inevitable? Or maybe it’s not true that you should leave people’s personal properties out of your calculation of their political worth. Maybe the personal really is political, and if a politician is personally awful then they will be politically terrible. In my youth there was a strong principle that you don’t bring people’s personal life into politics. But perhaps Trump is the antithesis of that principle: we should absolutely judge politicians by their personal behavior, because they will never be better than they are personally when they are in power. Or maybe something has changed over the past 20 years in our culture, so that people are no longer capable of being better politically than they are personally. If so then you need to make sure that the people you vote for have sterling personal qualities, because if in the past the responsibility of leadership caused people to rise above themselves, it appears that these awful men take the opportunity of leadership to debase themselves. If power corrupts, what hope do we have if all of our leaders are already deeply, awfully corrupt?

I don’t know what the reason is but I do know this: we need to get rid of these awful men. Our civilization cannot survive if we allow these awful men to have any influence, anywhere in our society. We need to drive them out, retire them, get them away from anywhere where there is a lever of power. We don’t know what the systematic problems are that enable these awful men to seize the levers of power, so let’s settle on a simpler program: don’t work with them, don’t help them, don’t vote for them, don’t aid them or abet them. Get them out of power, everywhere.

Let’s build a world where we are not ruled by awful men.