• Or both? Last night I had the pleasure of watching Clint Eastwood’s Letters from Iwojima, which is a superb and beautiful movie with a genuine sensitivity to both Japan’s sad war history and to its wartime culture. It’s all the more impressive for having been directed by an American (and from a generation not renowned for their sensitivity towards Japanese feelings over the war), who obviously gave the Japanese a great deal of space to express their own culture within the movie. However, while I was watching it I found myself torn between repulsion and respect for the Japanese general, Kuribayashi, who had the sad task of setting up 20,000 Japanese men to die for no good purpose. Reflecting on this movie, I’m really not sure if it can be placed into the small number of movies that offer a genuine critique of the futility and stupidity of war (and especially of that war, for the Japanese), or whether it is just another chapter in the long and disappointing history of movies that defend or glorify war through the vehicle of its horrors and futility.

    First, though, the good. This movie has a gentle and understated tone in the first half, as we watch the preparations for the island’s defense and the fears of the various Japanese soldiers are portrayed through letters home, and through the ordinary soldiers’ conversations with each other. We have occasional flashbacks to their lives before the war, the circumstances of their recruitment or their assignment to Iwo Jima, and some of the politics that undermine the efforts of General Kuribayashi to defend his island. Kuribayashi’s vicious defensive plan is described but not in so much detail that it bogs down the story. The story is primarily told through the eyes of an ordinary soldier called Saigo, who has a wife and child at home and is desperate not to die. He has many lucky escapes both from the cruelty of his own superior officers and from the vicissitudes of battle.

    The film also offers a novel perspective on the US Marines, because it treats them just as the enemy is usually treated in a war movie of old: they are just faceless foes who need to be killed, and until near the end of the movie we do not see them or hear them, or learn anything about them. There are only really three face-to-face encounters between Japanese soldiers and Americans, and in one of these encounters we see US cruelty that is known about by historians but usually glossed over in war movies. In many ways this movie depicts the key properties of allied and Japanese propaganda that I described in my series of posts about the book War Without Mercy: the Japanese see the Americans as inferior and barbaric, their suspicions that they will be treated badly on surrender are confirmed by Marine savagery, but the movie itself ends with a (somewhat jarring) moment in which the Japanese soldiers adopt a moral message taken from a dead Marine’s letter: just as described in the last chapters of the book, this American movie maker begins to portray the Japanese as good captives, receptive to American moralisms and cultural tropes now that they have been subjugated.

    This unconscious lapse into one of the classic propaganda tropes of the war’s victors made me aware of the possibility that this movie is not as radical as perhaps some reviewers of it might like to think. The decision to portray the entire episode through the eyes of the losers was a bold and impressive move, but I found myself ultimately disappointed by the depiction of General Kuribayashi. We’re obviously intended to view him sympathetically: he’s something of a radical in the war effort, rejecting suicide tactics and favouring gentle treatment of his men, and he obviously believes the war is lost. Having lived in the USA he understands (as did the ill-fated Admiral Yamamoto) that Japan cannot defeat such a titan, and yet he does all he is ordered to do, and does it well. I think this movie asks us to view this as a noble tragedy, of a man doing his best in circumstances he cannot escape, and maintaining his humanity throughout, but I think there were two fatal flaws in the depiction of this character: one, that his supposedly noble humanitarianism was really just a kind of utilitarian brutality; and two, that we never see him struggling with or justifying the one decision he never even considers – surrender.

    The sense projected in the movie, through letters and flashbacks and his dealings with Saigo, are that he is a humanitarian, a general who cares about his men and their wellbeing. But whenever he deals with his men as soldiers, or as a group subject to his orders, his reasoning is always strictly utilitarian. He forbids suicide charges due to their futility, but at the end when there is nothing left to fight for he himself leads a charge, rather than surrender. He stops a captain from beating his soldiers, but not out of any leniency on footsoldiers who have been voicing the same doubts of victory that he voices to his comrade Nishi; rather, he doesn’t want men wasted – his issue is with the stupidity of the punishment, not with its necessity. Similarly when he rescues Saigo from an unnecessary beheading, his reasoning is that Saigo was following orders, not that beheading men for cowardice is wrong. Nothing in his actions questions the fundamentals of the war, his role in it or the inevitable expendability of his men – and he certainly doesn’t hesitate to leave his men for dead or to command their deaths when the battle begins. He is also remarkably uncritical of his own peers and his leadership: when he learns that the Navy have been lying to him about their defeat in the Marianas and the impossibility of naval support, he seems singularly unfazed. Would he react the same way if his privates were revealed to be shirking off work, or surrendering quickly?

    The second, bigger problem I had with the supposed sensitivity of his portrayal is very simple: he didn’t surrender. I know it’s a historical movie, so he can’t (everyone here is trapped in an infinite loop of cruel slaughter that no one can escape), but this doesn’t mean I have to be subjected to a vision of him as a gentle and kind soldier when the inexorable flow of the story is to the pointless deaths of 30,000 men. Kuribayashi had another, simple option at the beginning of summer, about halfway through the movie, when he discovered that the Navy had been lying to him about the powers and disposal of the Combined Fleet: he could have arrested his admirals and navy commanders for treason, had them shot in front of their men, and then surrendered the island and all the men on it to the Americans. This would have meant the bloodless capture of Iwo Jima four months earlier, which would have ended the war – which Kuribayashi already knew was lost – four months earlier, which would have meant four months less of starvation, burning and mass murder on the Japanese mainland, as well as four months’ less brutality and oppression in China. Furthermore, this surrender would have sent shockwaves through the other isolated islands of the Pacific, and by shaking the Americans’ belief that the Japanese would never surrender, it might have led them to consider alternatives to the nuclear attacks on Japan. Of course, Kuribayashi didn’t surrender, and it’s good that the movie presents the actual events of Iwo Jima rather than my silly alternative universe ideals; but the fact that he didn’t surrender really makes me doubt the depiction of him as a man who cares for his men. Or perhaps more viscerally, it makes me doubt the depiction of him as a good man. I guess the movie would have been less popular if instead of showing a man tortured by his inevitable noble sacrifice, it showed a hard and cruel leader who used his men efficiently rather than with the casual brutality and scorn that seems to characterize much of the Japanese high command. It’s probably not a palatable alternative, and certainly wouldn’t have been popular in Japan, to have the central relationship of the movie not Saigo’s gentle respect for his noble leader, but the continuing dialectic of conflict between the human needs of the men and Kuribayashi’s burning desire to use them pitilessly and efficiently to kill as many Americans as possible, for no better purpose than to keep Japan independent for a few more months.

    The final scenes of this movie have Kuribayashi leading a so-called banzai charge, the single most futile expression of the cruelty and inhumanity of Japan’s WW2 military. This charge was led by a man who had banned such charges earlier as counter-productive, and it is obviously intended to be viewed as noble but tragic. Watching this, I just felt it was pathetic and hopeless, and I would like to see more war movies which, rather than just viewing the war through the ordinary soldier’s eyes, actually try to critique it through their eyes. I think Letters from Iwo Jima goes part of the way towards doing this, but it fails at the last, and it fails for a simple reason: Japan’s war in the Pacific was a horrible mistake that plunged millions of people across a huge swathe of the world into 15 years of bloody darkness, none more so than the people of Japan itself. Portraying Japan’s experience of this war sensitively is a sign that the west has matured in its approach to the USA’s (inevitable) victory in that senseless war, but portraying Japan’s experience sensitively is also a very difficult task, because of that simple fact. In my opinion, you can’t properly approach this task by the kind of narrative presented in Letters from Iwo Jima. Instead, I think a more radical narrative is required, one that presents a more nuanced and critical view of the relationship between the fascist, repressive Japanese military leadership and its supposedly passive military mass. Elevating the leadership to the position of noble losers doesn’t, in my view, achieve that goal: instead, it serves to reinforce the view that war is a fundamentally noble enterprise in which, unfortunately, a few eggs need to be broken in order to make the omelet.

    Japan’s experience of World War 2 is a clear case of “war, what is it good for?” – a whole generation burned away in a conflagration with no purpose and no hope of victory. I don’t think that approaching the enemy from a position of sensitivity and understanding (as Clint Eastwood is obviously trying to do in this movie) should mean throwing away that simple fact. Rather, it means incorporating it, and presenting your view of the war first and foremost with a critique of the leadership, the criminals who pushed ordinary citizens like Saigo into that fire. While this movie does a beautiful and impressive job of presenting folks like Saigo as real people rather than faceless enemies, I think it fails to be sufficiently critical of Kuribayashi, who may have been a great guy to his family but still failed to intervene in the senseless deaths of 30,000 people, because he clearly thought that those deaths were right and just. Such men are history’s greatest criminals, and I think that there should be more space in the narrative for recognition of their flaws.

    Which isn’t to say, of course, that I could do a better job. This movie is a splendid piece of work, a great showcase of the subtleties of ordinary Japanese life and culture, and deserves its critical acclaim. It’s definitely worth watching and deserves acclaim, as well, for taking on the rare and difficult task of viewing “our” victory through “their” eyes. If you appreciate war movies and you’re interested in seeing an American perspective on the Japanese in the war, I definitely recommend it.

  • … What would statistical analysis look like?

    Last night my partner, for whom computers always seem to fail, made a comment about having to “tap the secret window and turn three times widdershins” in order to get her facebook app to work. She is one of those people for whom computers hold slightly mystical properties, because they never seem to work properly. It’s quite hilarious at times because they are guaranteed to work the moment she calls me to see the problem, creating that common feeling some people have that computers aren’t really scientific objects and/or that some people exude some magical property of technological disruption.

    When you stand back and think about what computers can do, they are a kind of magical phenomenon. Before their invention, modern mathematical calculations had to be performed by teams of – mostly young, female – assistants called “calculators,” who amongst other things played an important role in scientific support during world war 2. Now tasks that were beyond the skill of even those teams of dedicated young women are conducted in a microsecond with a single click. Plus our computers can be used to get oracular information (predicting the weather, or changes in our leaders), to scry on people from afar, and even to make important military and investment decisions, as well as cursing strangers with death from the skies (drone warfare).  They daily work a kind of magic.

    My partner’s comment, then, had me imagining what it would be like if computers’ semi-magical powers were actually implemented through magic, and those who used computers had to actually invoke some kind of little magic to control the greater magic behind the screen. Perhaps the spell would require some verbal, somatic and material components, and instead of having a keyboard one would have a little altar or magical bench. Then, instead of accessing a remote website to learn tomorrow’s weather, one is instead using the magic box on the magical bench to contact a distant infernal entity, which gives you its oracle. The distant magic is great, but your workstation is simply a minor magic that opens a conduit to the greater power.

    So to find a train time you simply need to invoke some boggart living under the ground, who is a train enthusiast: perhaps you sprinkle some iron filings inside a pentacle on your workbench, and it opens a link to the distant boggart, who grudgingly answers your question. The weather means contacting a sylph, so perhaps you have to stand naked in front of your computer screen and read her a love poem: in exchange she will give you predictions of the weather for the next three days with perfect accuracy – unless your reading of the poem was poor, in which case you will get no warning about the need for an umbrella.

    But then, what would a statistical analysis look like? For this I have to call on a greater entity, one capable of processing huge amounts of information in a short time. Imagine I’m at work, analyzing four years of inpatient data from the NHS: that’s about 64 million records that I want to apply a multi-level poisson regression model to. Thanks to the great intellect of Sophia Rabe-Hesketh, this will take a couple of hours on a decent modern workstation (if it has the RAM to load the records). But it involves a truly stupendous level of calculation, and the invocation of a power capable of conducting such calculations would surely require some more powerful magics. So there I would be, chalking out a magic circle on the floor of my office while chanting an ancient and rhythmic calming chant; then I light some incense, step inside the circle, and place some drops of my blood on a specially-prepared silver plate. Next to it I place a research plan, written perhaps on the flayed skin of a heretic who himself had great mathematical ability, and this will call up the demon that processes my data; but this demon will only produce results according to the exact wording of my fiendish research plan, so any ambiguities or confusion in the methods section will waste the magic. Once the demon has been apprized of the plan, it sets to work, and I have to sit in the circle, slowly reciting the value of pi. If I have chosen an oracle who is to weak, or I have misspecified the research plan, then perhaps I will run out of digits of pi before the oracle finishes their  work – this is kind of like when GLLAMM fails to converge, or I only get the generalized linear model approximation to the true values. But if I have chosen my oracle well and recite the value of pi at just the right speed, I will be handed the results.

    Of course, I could run a pre-ritual with a minor imp, to learn the value of pi to a greater number of decimal places, because perhaps this is cheaper than providing the necessary propitiations to the fastest and most powerful oracles. Thus research planning will involve trade-offs not between sample size and power, as they do now, but between magical reagents and accuracy – I can choose cheaper reagents, but will get an oracle who provides results with less precision. My grants will not be funded in money for better computers, but in scraps of skin, bundles of rare herbs, and piles of powdered silver and specially-prepared chalk. Perhaps there will be the odd quest to find rare ingredients (far more interesting than a conference trip!) or funding to send adventurers after them in my stead.

    Anyone passing my office while I’m doing this work would see this strange sight, of me sitting cross-legged in the circle, dripping blood onto that silver plate and reciting numbers, while strange colours swirl on the screen on my workdesk, and fragrant incense drifts around the room. Perhaps the results will not be printed out, but will be just delivered into my head, so no one will know when I’m finished whether I actually ever really contacted the oracle, or just shuffled around muttering mumbo-jumbo and made up a conclusion.

    So really, maybe not so different from the way things are done now, in the end.

  • A Marxist Reinterpretation of the Chronicles

    Last night I watched the second movie in the Narnia chronicles, Prince Caspian. I have read the books, but it was so long ago that I had completely forgotten the story, so it was just like watching a fresh fantasy movie. Overall it was fun with serious flaws: the children were unlikable at best, the ending is essentially deus ex machina, Aslan is a really dicky lion, the centaurs looked really crappy, and the story has that underlying feeling that a group of dippy white kids can inherit the earth for no reason but that they were born lucky, which seems a common problem in British fantasy[1]. In its favour, the action scenes were fun, that Susan chick was cool, Prince Caspian was very handsome, and the bad guys were really bad. Not only was the bad king genuinely bad, but the manner of his demise was a perfect piece of comeuppance. So that was all good. However, the final final ending scene made my head explode with rage, and I think I have to elevate it to the pantheon alongside Titanic and the Breakfast Club for cynical endings. I’m now going to describe why, but be aware: this is spoiler central. If you have never read the books or seen the movie, you should probably stop here.

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    [WARNING: Spoilers] So, the kids have won their war against the evil humans (let’s call them the Dicks, because I couldn’t catch their full name). The Dicks are all gathered in a town square, being addressed by the universe’s dweebiest god, Aslan, who tells them that they are welcome to live where they are, in peace with the good folk of Narnia, but they can also go back where they came from, which is apparently some tropical island on earth. He will transport them there with his magic powers that are sufficient to teleport whole populations across time and space but insufficient to bring peace to Narnia. At first they look askance on this offer, somewhat in the way that German soldiers might have looked askance at their Russian captors in 1944 when they were told “This train will take you to somewhere warm.” But at last the general from the army steps forward and says he’ll go, and then the dead evil king’s wife steps forward with her son. Aslan says “because you spoke up first, I will ensure your life is extra good on the other side.”

    This really, really pissed me off for two reasons. First of all, it’s that classic christian needy-god rubbish, in which Aslan is so powerful that he can transport you across universes but so insecure that you if you don’t immediately jump at his bidding he will punish you for not trusting him. So the first people to show they trust a lunatic talking lion get special treatment, and all the completely rational and reasonable people who are standing in the crowd, recently traumatized by losing a fucking war, are going to be made second-class citizens in this new world because they didn’t show quite the trusting spirit that a deific lion might want them to. Why would you not trust a lion when it tells you it’s going to be nice to you? Can’t think of a single reason … Anyone who has read the bible knows that needy gods are also genocidal, capricious and wrathful gods. Best not to do what that god wants.

    But the next pissy thing about this is the people who got the benefit: the general and the wife of the king. So they go from wielding maximum temporal power in Narnia, to being granted special boons in the next world they go to by the guy who defeated them. This is a classic example of the powerful looking after each other even when they do wrong to each other. Why reward the general for being trusting, after he just tried to exterminate your race? Why not instead offer him the dingiest farm in the hardest place? Because having once been in power, he will always be treated better by others in power, while his footsoldiers – who slogged through the mud for him just days earlier, being beaten by minotaurs and rained with arrows – get second place in the next world too. Oh, how the mechanisms of power reproduce themselves even in adversity …

    The ending gets even worse at this point though, because now the crowd reveal they don’t trust Aslan, and demand proof that the gate he has created is safe. Rather than pointing out to them that a god who can open gates will always be able to fool them with tricks to reassure them, the eldest kid decides that the four kids should all go back through the gate to prove it is safe. Aslan agrees, and furthermore points out that two of them won’t ever be able to come back because they’re too old. He also basically tells his favourite, Lucy, to fuck off and not come back.

    So basically Aslan is telling these kids that instead of being kings and queens in a world of magic and talking badgers, they are going to be kicked out and forced to go back to living as ordinary kids in London during the blitz. Your reward for helping god? Forced to return to live in a cramped hell-hole of a city that is on fire. And they agree, because of some weird power that Aslan has to convince people that they aren’t able to control his power or the workings of the world, even though he’s standing in front of them negotiating.

    I’ve always been confused by the ending of these world-crossing books. It would take me precisely one second to decide that no, I am not going back to being a sales assistant in a bookshop after I just spent months wielding mighty magics in the Land of Phallusia. I think I’ll stay here, thank you, and you can line the vestal virgins up in the hallway outside my penthouse room. Oh, and bring me some of that elixir of youth while you’re at it, I’ll be bedding them until the dawn of the next age. Oh, how cute! A talking lion! There there little lion, why don’t you go and lick your balls over in the corner while I rule this kingdom wisely, and make myself very rich? Because I can tell from the abject state of its denizens, and the fact that a mere bookshop assistant from Croydon can sort all this shit out, that you are neither a wise nor a good god. Now, go and eat your din-dins like a good pet while the adults get on with sorting out the mess you made of your world.

    That‘s how Prince Caspian should have ended, not with the plebs being deported to another world to be ruled over by exactly the people who got them into their situation in the first place, and Susan the mighty archer princess having to steal a kiss from a very very handsome Prince whose kingdom she could be ruling before a talking lion whisks her off to study O-level chemistry in a city being bombed by Nazis. That, my friends, is a cynical ending par excellence.

    fn1: I wonder why? Actually the Narnia chronicles strike me as potentially very colonialist. At one point a talking animal admits that Narnia has never been happy except when a son of Adam – i.e. a white man – is sitting on its throne. That’s right, Narnia’s swarthy and animalistic hordes will never be content until they are ruled by a member of the British elite.

  • Some academic has written a paper suggesting global warming (AGW) skeptics are moon-landing conspiracy theorists, and this has sparked a bit of a controversy. One of the many complaints about it is that it recruited subjects online through a survey posted on blogs, and therefore is completely unrepresentative of skeptics in the community. I’m going to examine this a bit here, in the context of the problem of studying online communities. I’m going to do this through everyone’s favourite context: gaming.

    Suppose that you’re a lefty tree-hugging academic who wants to do a study of attitudes towards women in role-playing games. You want to find female gamers and you want their voice to be representative of all gamers in the community. There is basically only one robust way to do this: a simple random sample of the community. Since this is impossible, we usually use something that can be forced to approximate it through statistical tricks and a bit of hand-waving: the cluster-sampled face-to-face survey or the random sampled phone survey. These can be extremely resource-intensive, and a typical poll in Australia will involve 800 -1500 people; all the polling goodness for Australia can be found here. So let’s suppose some well-funded researcher can pay Roy Morgan or Newspoll to tack a few questions about gaming onto the end of a poll (companies do this all the time). They will then get to ask the question they want to ask of about 1000 randomly selected Australians of all ages over 16 and both sexes. This means they will identify about 20 role-players, 1 of whom will be a woman. They could design a special poll that they commission separately, which oversamples 20-40 year olds, which will get them about 50 roleplayers (3 women); but this yields diminishing returns because for statistical reasons the weighting that gets applied to an over-sampled poll reduces its accuracy. In either case the sample of gamers will be “representative” of the population, but the precision will be so poor that we will be able to say something like “0-100% of women who game think that the gaming industry is sexist.” The only way to up the accuracy is to recruit enough role-players that we get about 30 women; that is, about 600 role-players in a randomly-selected sample of size 30,000. At this size we can do prevalence estimates but no regression comparisons of males and females – for that we need probably another 30 women, or a sample size of about 60,000. We need to sample a quantifiable proportion of the Australian population to find out that, yes, female gamers think the industry is sometimes sexist.

    That was worth it, wasn’t it[1]? Why hasn’t someone funded this research? Governments have really crappy priorities these days – they’ll fund some guy in WA to do an internet survey of mere <i>climate skeptics</i> but they won’t fork out the cash for a decent survey of Aussie role-players! Maybe we need to get smarter with our grant applications … so instead we notice that gamers gather in clubs and shops, and realize that we could get a reasonably representative sample of gamers by recruiting subjects there. A couple of weekends and some hard yards later, and we’ve recruited our 600 gamers[2]. Of course, our sample is no longer strictly representative of either the gaming community or the general community, because some gamers don’t play at shops (the <i>Vampire</i> crowd are hanging around the graveyard, and the cool kids are doing it at heavy metal gigs or at their local coven). Also, we’ve given up the ability to estimate population prevalences, because we don’t know how many gamers we missed in our study. But if we know something about our topic, and we work hard to recruit, and we also put up adverts in the right places and do a bit of snowball sampling (get them to invite their friends) we may be in with a chance of covering enough of the community, and getting a diverse enough range of gamers, that we’ve got something that if not completely representative, is at least robust to criticism. The only reason to do this is that it’s much cheaper, but this is a common problem in modern research: Michael Mann may be up to his ears in NASA-funded cocaine, dancing girls and cadillacs, but the rest of us are just struggling to recruit 100 sweaty-palmed nerds to fill in a two page survey.

    This is pretty much the standard way that one recruits “hard-to-reach” groups: role-players, street-based sex workers, injecting drug users, hamster-fetishists, AGW skeptics … sex work is legal (or decriminalized/licensed) in Australia now but good luck trying to recruit a nationally-representative sample of sex workers over the phone. No, you have to do the hard yards, slogging through brothels and asking if you could interview the pretty girl at the back in the cherry boots … your sample will never be nationally representative if you do this, but it will be representative of <i>something</i>, and if you target your survey selection well and do the right work, you can make your findings valid in some sense.

    We could extend this basic principle to online gaming, though online gamers have a registration system and a defined world they operate in, so if we were to get the cooperation of the gaming companies it would be possible to run simple random samples of gamers and get quite a good response. To do this we would need the cooperation of the gaming community’s custodians: the companies that run the games. With their help it would be easy to distribute a survey to the gamers who use their servers, getting a large and robust sample. We wouldn’t be able to get prevalence estimates because to do that you need to randomly sample the whole community and ask them about their gaming habits; but it would be enough to examine relationships between gamers and their opinions of stuff.

    The same thing applies to other online communities, and perhaps more so because online communities can be very fragmented compared to other communities: they can be international, for starters, dislocated geographically and never meeting in person. These communities can have very strong shared bonds, such as the people who comment at acrackedmoon‘s website, but know nothing about each other’s physical lives. And they may be bound together by very strong political ties but completely socially unconnected. Surveying these people physically is almost impossible. We see this at both warmist and skeptic websites: the online AGW-debating world is a world that has no physical analog, and can’t be sampled through physical means. The only way to sample it with any accuracy is to sample it online.

    However, there is a problem here. To justify using an online survey to recruit online skeptics/warmists for research, we need to prove that the online community of skeptics/warmists is different to the rest of the community. That is, if I select 1000 ordinary Australians and get their opinions of global warming[3], I should expect that their responses will be different to the online community of skeptics/warmists – presumably, less inflammatory and less extreme. If I can be confident that the online community is special, contained within itself, rare and not necessarily representative of the community as a whole, then I can be fairly confident that I need to recruit them using special convenience sampling methods – but I can also be fairly confident that existing research on the issues at play cannot be applied to them, which I think is what Lewandowsky did with his assumption about pre-existing factor structures.

    I think that in order to understand the modern skeptic/warmist debate we need to recruit these people online. But the only reason to do this is that these groups are different, which means that we can’t apply existing cognitive models to them, we need to make new ones from an exploratory perspective. Lewandowsky seems not to have done the latter, but he tried to do the former. Sadly, the skeptic blogs didn’t accommodate him in his efforts, and anyone who has done research with hard-to-reach groups knows that you need your research to be supported by trusted peers before you can implement it successfully. As a result, the survey was only conducted on warmist sites, and I would challenge any skeptic reading this to toddle over to Deltoid, look at the comments from the skeptics posting there, and then tell me with a straight face that you want those skeptics speaking on your behalf. If you want your voice heard in research, you need to take part in research. Otherwise the weirdos at Catallaxy will do it for you, and before you know it this guy will be telling Stephan Lewandowsky that AGW is a myth because the Aztecs faked the moon landing.

    fn1: Incidentally, this points us at the inherent efficiency of women’s studies as a discipline. One junior academic sitting in her office could have told you that from looking at back issues of <i>Dragon</i> magazine. And she could have taught her first year students where their clitoris is before lunch. Much cheaper!

    fn2: Actually I’m not really convinced that there are 600 gamers in Australia.

    fn3: which I would *never* do with a 5-point scale, because all Australians would just say “3,” “don’t really care”

  • Introduction

    In this post I will examine the data on beliefs about climate change, conspiracy theories and free market ideology collected by Stephan Lewandowsky. Lewandowsky conducted an exploratory factor analysis (EFA) followed by Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) on the assumption that established theories of conspiracy theory ideation obtained from prior research could be applied to research in online communities of skeptics and warmists. Lewandowsky collected data from those who accept the science of anthropogenic global warming (AGW), hereafter referred to as warmists, and those who reject it, hereafter referred to as skeptics. Lewandowsky constructed exploratory factors by applying factor analysis to separate sets of variables; I think exploratory factor analysis should be more data driven and, since a dataset of individuals who are active on online communities cannot be assumed to follow the same cognitive patterns as communities from which prior results on cognitive models and conspiracy theories were derived, the data should be examined without constraints on which groups of variables should be associated with factors.

    In this post I will show that this simple assumption leads to significant differences in outcome, to very different results about the cognitive framework of skeptics vs. warmists, and to different conclusions about the type of communication strategies that warmists should use to persuade skeptics to change their minds.

    This is a long post, but if you skip to the “conclusion” section you will also be able to read a BMJ-style “what is known already” and “what this study adds” section that may help to digest the essential points of the post (and the conclusion should be meaningful to non-statsy people).

    Methods

    (You can skip this if factor analysis makes your eyes bleed).

    The data set was obtained using code available from Steve Mcintyre at Climate Audit. Principal Components Analysis (PCA) was used to extract eigenvectors and eigenvalues from the correlation matrix for all 32 variables, and the values of the first eigenvector (loadings) were examined for information about possible relationships between the variables on this variable. The Kaiser Criterion was applied to eigenvalues extracted from PCA to determine how many factors to retain in factor analysis. Factor analysis was conducted using a varimax rotation (the default in R) with the number of retained factors determined by this Kaiser Criterion. To be clear, this means the core analysis proceeds according to the following stages:

    1. Use PCA to extract eigenvectors and eigenvalues
    2. Examine the loadings of the first eigenvector for descriptive purposes, because they are usually informative
    3. Apply the Kaiser criterion to the eigenvalues obtained from PCA: that is, the number of eigenvalues >1 will determine the number of factors to be extracted from the data
    4. Use factor analysis to extract this number of factors, based on maximum likelihood estimation with a varimax rotation

    A variable was considered to load onto a given factor in an explanatory sense if the absolute value of its loading was greater than 0.4. That is, if a variable j loads onto factor r with absolute value <0.4, that variable is not considered to be associated with that factor. The actual values of the factors (the so-called scores) were calculated based on actual loadings, so would include linear combinations of the variables not considered to load onto the factor in an explanatory sense. Some factor analysis techniques reduce the final values of the factors to a straight sum of only those variables that loaded onto the given factor, but for this article I have chosen to use the full linear combination of all variables as identified in the factor analysis. I think this is consistent with Lewandowsky’s approach to calculating factors.

    Subjects were defined as warmist or skeptic on the basis of their responses to variables 7 to 10, the global warming questions. Those individuals who scored greater than or equal to 12 on the sum of these questions were considered warmist. That is, skeptics were those who refused to agree with all of questions 7 to 10. Obtained factors were then regressed against this variable to see the relationship between the factors and the AGW allegiance of the respondent.

    Factors were interpreted based on their variable loadings, and further exploratory analyses conducted as necessary to explore the difference between factors obtained using this method and those of Lewandowsky.

    For sensitivity analysis, factor analysis was repeated based on two possible results of visual inspection of a scree plot of eigenvalues (not shown). Differences between the values of the loadings on factor 1 were checked for all three methods (the Kaiser method and the two possible results of the visual inspection).

    All analysis was conducted in R. Code with some descriptive information is linked in the appendix.

    Results

    (If you don’t understand factor analysis, you can skip reading most of this section. I have tried to include a layperson’s explanation, but it’s very difficult to give a layperson’s explanation of factor analysis so it may not be adequate).

    (If you do want to skip the minutiae of the results, there is also a section here comparing Lewandowsky’s factors and mine, which is potentially informative).

    There were 32 variables in the dataset and 1145 observations. PCA identified five eigenvalues with values greater than one, and the associated eigenvectors explained 60% of the variance in the data (which is not really very good for physical sciences, but pretty good for a psychological survey). The eigenvector of the first principal component contained large positive values (ranging from about 0.1 to 0.3) for the global warming and science variables, and negative values (ranging from about -0.1 to about -0.3) for the free market variables. That is, the first principal component measures a contrast between endorsement of global warming and other science-related variables, and endorsement of free market variables.

    Based on these results, factor analysis was conducted with five factors and a varimax rotation. The values of the loadings for each variable on each factor are shown in table 1. Variables whose loading has an absolute value larger than 0.4 are shown in bold. Variables with negligible loadings after rotation are given a blank value in the table, consistent with output from R.

    Table 1: Loadings for a five factor exploratory factor analysis of the Lewandowsky data

    Variable

    Loadings

    Factor 1

    Factor 2

    Factor 3

    Factor 4

    Factor 5

    FMUnresBest

    0.67

     

     

     

    0.37

    FMNotEvQual

    0.24

    0.10

     

     

     

    FMLimitSocial

    0.54

     

    -0.13

     

    0.19

    FMMoreImp

    0.68

     

     

     

    0.34

    FMThreatEnv

    0.74

     

    -0.11

     

    0.42

    FMUnsustain

    0.74

     

    -0.10

     

    0.39

    CO2TempUp

    -0.86

     

    0.21

     

    0.14

    CO2AtmosUp

    -0.92

     

    0.16

     

    0.14

    CO2WillNegChange

    -0.93

     

    0.11

     

     

    CO2HasNegChange

    -0.87

     

     

     

     

    CFCNowOK

    0.41

     

     

     

     

    AcidRainNowOK

    0.49

     

     

     

     

    CYNewWorldOrder

    0.35

    0.51

    -0.19

     

     

    CYSARS

     

    0.59

     

    0.13

     

    CYPearlHarbor

     

    0.63

     

     

     

    CYAIDS

     

    0.64

    -0.22

     

     

    CYMLK

     

    0.73

     

     

     

    CYMoon

     

    0.42

     

     

     

    CYArea51

     

    0.53

    -0.14

    0.67

     

    CYJFK

     

    0.68

     

     

     

    CY911

     

    0.73

    -0.10

     

     

    CYRoswell

     

    0.54

    -0.13

    0.73

     

    CYDiana

     

    0.65

    -0.11

    0.14

     

    CYOkla

    -0.13

    0.41

     

     

     

    CYClimChange

    0.85

    0.11

    -0.14

     

     

    CYCoke

     

    0.51

     

     

     

    CauseHIV

    -0.26

    -0.27

    0.54

     

     

    CauseSmoke

    -0.24

    -0.18

    0.55

     

     

    CauseCO2

    -0.86

     

    0.27

     

    0.10

    ConsensHIV

    -0.12

     

    0.55

     

     

    ConsensSmoke

     

     

    0.55

     

     

    ConsensCO2

    -0.69

     

    0.27

     

    0.11

    The factors can be interpreted approximately as follows, based on those variables that load onto a factor with absolute value greater than 0.4:

    • Factor 1 (Free Market-AGW axis): measures conflict between endorsement of global warming and endorsement of free market ideas. Those who agree with one disagree with the other. Note that this factor has a very strong loading from the climate change conspiracy theory variable CYClimChange – this is a crucial point. Those who endorse the free market questions generally disagree with the climate change questions and see AGW theory as a conspiracy, but they do not endorse any other conspiracy theories.
    • Factor 2 (conspiracy theory): a factor measuring endorsement of conspiracy theories, that loads strongly onto all conspiracy theory variables except the climate change conspiracy.
    • Factor 3 (Cause and consensus): a variable measuring agreement with measures of cause and consensus on smoking and HIV. This measures the strength of subjects’ beliefs about HIV and smoking issues, and could probably be seen as an endorsement of broader scientific ideals. Note it is uncorrelated with both the AGW/free market axis and the conspiracy theory factor, but explains only about 4% of the variance in the data
    • Factor 4 (Space Aliens!): this variable measures an additional dimension of conspiracy theory, and marks out those individuals who have a really strong belief in alien conspiracy theories
    • Factor 5 (meaningless): this factor is a meaningless factor with no interpretation, which does not need to be included in the model but was kept because the Kaiser criterion tends to retain too many factors. We ignore it.

    The variance explained by each factor is shown in table 2.

    Table 2: Variance Explained by Factors

    Factor Variance Explained Cumulative Variance
    Free market- AGW axis 0.26 0.26
    Conspiracy theory 0.15 0.40
    Cause and Consensus 0.05 0.46
    Space Aliens! 0.04 0.49
    Meaningless 0.02 0.51

    Comparison of Factors with Lewandowsky’s Constructs

    Note that the free market-AGW axis (factor 1) essentially contrasts Lewandowsky’s free market factor and his (separately generated) climate change factor. However, it also includes the climate change conspiracy theory variable, which tends to be endorsed by those who oppose climate change theory and support free market ideals. This climate change conspiracy theory is approximately the fourth most popular (endorsed by 134 individuals) and its inclusion in the free market-AGW axis factor is important. The combination of Lewandowsky’s free market and AGW factors into one factor is important too – in Lewandowsky’s model they were correlated with each other, whereas in this model they form a single factor.

    The conspiracy theory factor (factor 2) measures the strength of a respondent’s beliefs about a range of conspiracy theories except the global warming conspiracy, which does not load strongly on this factor. Note that, by design in factor analysis, this factor is uncorrelated with the free market-AGW axis factor. That is, it is unrelated to the factor that measures conflict between free market ideals and global warming theory.

    Layperson’s Explanation

    When you allow factor analysis to apply to all the variables, rather than applying it to predetermined groups of variables, you get a different relationship between factors to that obtained by Lewandowsky. One factor measures conflict between free market ideology and AGW theory, and one factor measures conspiracies, though just as with Lewandowsky’s work the conspiracy factor does not include AGW conspiracy theory. In fact, those who reject AGW are only more likely to endorse a single conspiracy theory: the AGW one. They are not otherwise more likely to be conspiracy theorists. Note that a simple logistic regression of “AGW rejection” against the various conspiracy theory variables might have identified this.

    However, because Lewandowsky has separated the free market and AGW-rejection factors, and hasn’t included the AGW conspiracy theory variable in either of them, both of these factors are now likely to be correlated with the conspiracy theory variable. There is a correlation of -0.15 between the AGW factor and the conspiracy factor in Lewandowsky’s model, and of -0.77 between the free market ideals and AGW factors. I think these correlations work together in the SEM to give Lewandowsky’s results.

    Further minor implications of the factor structure

    It also appears that HIV denialism (HIVCause) and the cancer/smoking relationship (SmokeCause) are more likely to be endorsed by warmists, but only very weakly (they have weak negative loadings on factor 1). It also appears that those who endorse free market ideals are associated with the new world order conspiracy (it has a loading of 0.35 on factor 1). This is consistent with my personal experience of hanging out with anarchists (who commenter Paul tells me were defined as “left wing” at his university and who did include a few HIV denialists and had kooky ideas about smoking) and also of reading WUWT, where I have read quite a few people endorsing the new world order conspiracy. I’ve never seen a moon landing denialist, but the new world order and AGW denial conspiracies do get an airing over there. I did once see a guy deny special relativity because “you can’t square a speed, man” but I guess he was just commenting while very, very stoned.

    Nonetheless, while these implications might be fun for poking fun at our political enemies, they don’t meet our loading criteria (0.4 or above) so we don’t include them in our interpretation of the final factors.

    Further exploratory analysis

    In this sample, 18% of respondents were found to be skeptics on the basis of their responses to questions 7 to 10. Factor 2 measures conspiracy theories. A linear regression model of factor 2 by whether subjects were skeptics found no relationship between skeptic/warmist position and the conspiracy factor. However, a linear regression of responses to the climate change conspiracy question was highly significant, with those who were warmists having an average value of 1.04 for this variable, while on average the skeptics’ value was higher by 2.76 (t statistic 45.66, p<0.001). Thus, skeptics were highly likely to endorse this conspiracy theory, but showed no significant difference on the conspiracy theory factor.

    The two main factors were largely unchanged if factor analysis was conducted with only two or three factors instead of five.

    Conclusion

    When factor analysis was applied to the entire Lewandowsky dataset without prior assumption about the structure of the underlying constructs, only two important factors were identified. The most important factor measured the contrast between free market ideals and AGW endorsement, and the second measured endorsement of conspiracy theories in general. A fourth factor recorded space alien conspiracy theories. Thus factor 1 represented a contrast between two factors identified as separate by Lewandowsky.

    Skeptics are no more likely to endorse conspiracy theories than warmists, except for the AGW conspiracy theory, which they were highly likely to endorse. Because this conspiracy theory is common, if it is included in a factor that measures conspiracy theories it will completely change the factor, and this factor will become statistically significantly different between warmists and skeptics.

    Lewandowsky’s exploratory factor analysis assumed three separate factors measuring, separately, AGW endorsement, free market ideology, and conspiracy theories. This has two important implications:

    1. It forces factors to be generated according to pre-existing conceptions of which variables load onto which factors
    2. It does not require factors to be uncorrelated with each other

    However, a more data-driven form of exploratory factor analysis that does not make prior assumptions about the structure of the data does not force this association, and leads to a completely different set of conclusions about conspiracy theories and AGW rejection. Specifically, that they are unrelated.

    Factor 1, which measures the Free market-AGW axis, provides interesting confirmation of what we all know about the history and state of play of the debate over AGW. We all know that rejection of AGW theory has been driven primarily by some elements of the Republican party and free market think tanks and institutions (like Heartland). It’s therefore not unreasonable to expect that this historical development of the debate has constructed the present context, and leads to a division between free market believers and AGW believers. It’s possible to imagine an alternative universe in which AGW was rejected by unions and socialists on the grounds that it was a capitalist plot to undermine the development of the poor, and in this case we would see the opposite relationship, with those who reject free market ideals also rejecting AGW. Factor 1 in this data is a measurement of the state of play in the current debate, and gives statistical confirmation of what we all know: that those who reject AGW tend to come from a free market perspective (see e.g. Tony Watts on PBS recently whinging about taxes and regulation).

    It is also unsurprising that the AGW conspiracy theory is endorsed by those who reject AGW theory. They know a lot of people and scientists agree with the theory, so obviously in rejecting it they will be likely to see it as a conspiracy.

    This data also provides information for warmists who want to convince skeptics that they are wrong. Skeptic beliefs on AGW are closely linked to free market ideology, which is currently suffering stresses under the collapse of the neo-liberal global order after the global financial collapse. If warmists want to change skeptics’ minds, they need to target this nexus of free market ideology and AGW rejection, find models of response to AGW that can use free market ideals (such as carbon pricing mechanisms), more closely attack the failings of the free market ideology, point to past successes of free markets in dealing with crises, and separate the issue of the economic response from the science of the problem.

    The factor analysis presented here suggests that AGW rejection is associated with a specific ideological landscape, and contrary to Lewandowsky’s findings, that it has no particular relationship with any conspiracy theory except the obvious: those respondents who thought AGW was not true were very likely to believe the science of AGW was part of a conspiracy theory or a hoax. They did not see this conspiracy theory in the same way as other conspiracy theories. Lewandowsky’s findings of a free market/ AGW rejection effect are robust, but his conspiracy findings only arise from the placement of restrictions on the initial factor selection method, and do not represent the true subtlety of skeptic ideology, which can be strongly pro-science in other areas but strongly paranoid about AGW. It is better to attack this specific thinking, which is often ideologically driven by factors external to the science, than to view skeptics as having a conspiratorial mindset in general.

    What is already known on this topic

    Lewandowsky’s research has shown an association between rejection of AGW theory and free market ideals. His finding that AGW skeptics also endorse conspiracy theories (or have a conspiratorial mindset) is controversial, and has been disputed on the basis of his data selection methods and data sources. His analysis has also been questioned because it assumes prior theory about cognitive models in exploratory factor analysis.

    What this analysis adds

    This analysis shows that making assumptions about which factors to construct generates a spurious association between conspiracy theory ideation and AGW rejection. This analysis shows that a more data-driven exploratory factor analysis does not associate conspiracy theory ideation with AGW rejection, but does confirm that those who reject AGW are likely to see AGW science as a conspiracy theory.

    A note on comments about the analysis

    I don’t believe that Lewandowsky’s decision to use pre-determined variables to construct factors was a deliberate attempt to smear skeptics. I think it’s a defensible decision to construct a factor set based on previous research and theory. I’m also not an expert on the underlying theory and philosophy of factor analysis, but I think the online skeptic/warmist community should be seen as sufficiently unique that it deserves its own, data-driven exploratory factor analysis. In this sense I think Lewandowsky made a mistake but I don’t think this should be read as meaning I am competent and he is not (or vice versa). It simply represents a disagreement about the framework from which to approach factor analysis. I think that this situation could potentially make a nice teaching example of the effect of forcing data to fit a pre-existing model when it is actually from a sample with a different underlying structural relationship between variables. Unfortunately, factor analysis includes a lot of art and these decisions can never be said to be wrong or right in any strict sense. So in comments here I am not interested in entertaining accusations of incompetence or deliberate manipulation of the analysis, either about me or Lewandowsky.

    Appendix: Code

    I don’t usually make my programming available when I report analyses on this blog, but in this case I will. It should not be necessary to read the code to reconstruct the methods as described in this post, but in case readers want to the code is available here. The code is divided into sections, which can be selected by changing the value of the variable contr.var. Set this variable to 1 to import the data, 2 to do basic pca, 3 to repeat pca on centred variables (this is completely irrelevant), 4 to do factor analysis with 2, 3 or 5 retained factors, and 5 to explore the differences between Lewandowsky’s factors and mine. In asking questions about code, please put the code indented in a comment, but first please try and read around it and read the comments – I have commented the code extensively so hopefully you can figure it out if you read and infer.

    Most of this analysis was done while offline and I couldn’t check other people’s methods or results, so if you see obvious mistakes about variable choices or definitions, please tell me.

    Update

    It has been pointed out to me in comments that Lewandowsky excluded the AIDS and AGW conspiracy theories from his conspiracy theory factor. I’ve changed the post to reflect that, and also added a brief comparison of the correlations between his three factors and mine. It doesn’t change the overall story, but IMO makes his results more robust.

  • At dinner tonight with a couple of Japanese friends, I heard a horror story about student part-time work in the 60s: corpse-grinding.

    It’s very common for students in Japan to work part time while they study, and this has been common since the war. Such work is referred to as an arubaito, from the German arbeit, one of Japan’s cuter language imports, and it’s a common assumption that students have this work. In the modern era the arubaito is usually in a restaurant, bar or hostess club, basically anywhere with flexible hours that can be fitted to a student job. But back in the day, you didn’t leave your job smelling of just cooking oil …

    My friend’s dad told her that back in the ’60s or ’70s, when he was doing his arubaito, corpses that were preserved for autopsies were not put in a freezer, but were steeped overnight (for a few days?) in a vat filled with some kind of embalming fluid. His arubaito consisted of standing around a large pool with a few other guys, carrying a big stick. His job was to make sure the corpses stayed roughly submerged in the fluid. Occasionally, when he was pushing a corpse down, it would roll out from under his stick and flop to the surface, dead eyes staring at him…

    But he once did an even worse job. Back in the day, medical textbooks included pictures of broken arms, but because of the complex nature of medical photography back in the day these arms weren’t the arms of injury victims. Rather, they were the arms of a corpse. And someone had to break them. Apparently the process involved a slow and careful kind of wrenching, not a sudden ping or anything, and it paid well: my friend reported that he was paid 60,000 yen to break a corpse’s arm. I don’t know if that was 60,000 yen in today’s money or back then, but either way it’s a lot of money – $600 at least for a few minutes’ work. But he could only do it once, because breaking a dead person’s arm is not a very pleasant job.

    I guess now the doctor just takes out a digital camera and snaps a patient’s arm, maybe pays them $10 (probably not). But back when cameras were not routinely available, and camera skills were weaker, and point and click cameras could not take a photo of sufficient quality for a book, I guess these thing couldn’t happen. So a small and elite number of men worked their way through university through a combination of corpse-drowning, and breaking the odd zombific arm.

    I remember once seeing an Oprah Winfrey episode about a man who paid his way through uni by being a sperm donor. I think I’d rather do that!

  • Today I ran a follow-up session of Warhammer 3 (WFRP 3) based in the world where I previously ran a Pathfinder Onsen Adventure. In the first session the players safely completed the first adventure, and now they are ready to explore their world and do a bit of adventuring. I’m running this as a kind of sandbox in a steam-powered world of below-Victorian-level tech, set in a world that corresponds geographically with Kyushu, Japan but is not intended to be anything except a cultural mish-mash. The characters in this session were an elven scout, a human wizard (of the jade order) and a human roadwarden. Our group changes a little from fortnight to fortnight, so the group won’t be constant.

    Just as in the Pathfinder version, at the end of the first adventure the PCs got a document granting them ownership of a small onsen resort near the town of Steamline Spa. They need to head down to the coast, to Separation City, to find a lawyer who can ratify their ownership of the onsen. The PCs planned to do this in this adventure, but they ran into a small hitch…

    The Disgruntled Guards

    The PCs arrived at the onsen resort as bodyguards to a rich old man who needed healing, but the resort itself actually had some guards already. After these guards found out that the PCs had taken ownership of the onsen resort they got a little uppity, and all five of them visited the PCs’ office to demand a renegotiation of the situation: specifically, that the PCs relinquish the deed of ownership to the guards and leave immediately. The guards consisted of:

    • Carsk: a massive, hulking barbarian-type from an undisclosed region, kind of swarthy with a face so heavily scarred that forming complex sentences is a challenge
    • The Spitting Woman: one of those lightly-armed cut-and-run types, obviously the brains of the group, this woman is probably from the far South and speaks a language so heavily punctuated by spitting and hacking sounds that the PCs never really learned her name, and just refer to her as “the spitting woman.”
    • The Triplets: A trio of fighters, inseparable, probably born at the same time, of indeterminate gender, who may not speak common and come from some barbaric place in the far west, beyond the World Forest.

    The Roadwarden, Chrestia, decided to use her leadership skills to try and convince the mob that instead of taking over the shop they should work as the PCs loyal servants. The PCs had been digging through documents and so discovered some evidence that Carsk was deep in debt to some gambling parlours in Steamline Spa, and they offered to help him work out his debts if he stayed loyal. However, none of these incentives worked, and after a couple of minutes of debate things turned sour. Combat ensued, and would have gone very badly if Chrestia hadn’t had the good idea of upturning their huge mahogany desk for cover. This gave them a small defensive bonus in the first round – not enough to stop the scout copping a third critical hit on top of the two he already had – but things were clearly looking dire. In fact the scout at this point was only alive because he had previously got healing sufficient to ignore one critical hit for a day – one more critical hit and he was dead, and if he didn’t get some decent healing in 24 hours he would die.

    Fortunately the room backed onto a verandah and then a garden, and so the PCs decided to make a run for it into the garden. The garden was surrounded by a wall with a gate, and they figured if they could make it to the gate one of them could hold the gate against the whole horde. The upturned desk gave them the chance, so they ran for it and made it to the gate. Here, Chrestia blocked the gate while the wizard fired magic darts over her shoulders and the scout dropped into the shadows. He used his ambush skills to deal with the triplets when they tried climbing over the wall, and Chrestia dealt with the spitting woman, who was first to the gate. Carsk, seeing no way through the gate, tried to climb the wall. The scout used a trick shot that enables him to shoot round corners, but it didn’t work; however, after Chrestia killed the Spitting Woman, the wizard was able to cast an entangle spell on Carsk as he was halfway up the wall.

    This had an unfortunate effect. The garden was already full of topiary that had been carved into sexually suggestive shapes, and Carsk was climbing the wall next to a topiary figure of a rabbit pleasuring herself on a rhinoceros’s horn. This topiary expanded to engulf Carsk, so that he was pinned to the wall with vines twined around his sweetmeats and his greatsword embedded in a sensitive part of the rhinoceros. Carsk was probably too tough for the PCs to kill in an open fight, but finding himself compromised by a rhinoceros-shaped shrub, and with vines slowly crawling around his balls, he changed his tune. He blamed the whole thing on the Spitting Woman, and agreed to work for the PCs as a loyal and faithful companion.

    The gnome wagons and the Beastmen

    The following day the PCs explored the valley near their onsen, finding the caravans that belonged to the gnome crime-boss they killed in the previous session. These caravans are luridly painted with famous stories in the history of the gnome race: in this case, scenes from the story of Grimsby’s contest with Casanova, in which Grimsby attempts to deflower every virgin Casanova is pursuing before Casanova can get to her. This story is known to have ended badly for everyone involved except Casanova, and the wagon decorations were really not suitable for display in a civilized city, but the wagons were pulled by wargoats and the PCs figured they could repaint them or sell them, so they took them back to their onsen. They then realized that the scout was in dire need of healing, and since they had to travel to Separation City anyway they headed off for Steamline Spa. A night at the healer’s later, and the scout was good as new. With a new day dawning, they headed to Separation City …

    Unfortunately, they were ambushed by Beastmen on the way. Four ungors and a wargor charged from the bushes to attack them as they were heading through a forested valley, with almost hilarious consequences. The wizard cast another entanglement spell, trapping the ungors in the scrub, but the wargor – a great 12′ tall monster of a screaming bull-headed bastard – hit their wagon at a full run, and did some serious damage to the roadwarden, who was driving the wagon. Unfortunately, to do this the wargor had charged through the side of the wagon, and got his head stuck in the wagon wall, and the roadwarden got a free hit on the beast’s head[1]. Having used her free attack, the roadwarden then pulled a classic stunt: she stabbed the arse of the wargoat dragging their wagon, forcing it into a blind run, and leapt out the back of the wagon. The wagon hurtled off down the road with the wargor still trapped by its head, desperately stumbling and struggling as it tried not to be trampled or run over and still with its head stuck in the side of the wagon. This left the PCs free, at least for a round or two, to deal with the entangled weaker beastmen. And this is where the session ended …

    fn1: the card “Fearsome charge” includes an effect when you roll 2 banes, in which the target gets a free strike. I figured this was because the wargor got stuck in the wagon’s boards.

  • The Guardian has a couple of pictures today of strange maps, which are pretty cool. My favourite is the map of the US in terms of distance from the nearest McDonalds, but in role-playing terms the railway one is pretty good. If the world were composed of city-states linked by potentially very wild trips on a wide range of steampunk-styled railway lines, I think you’d have a very weird and wild place for adventuring. Neil Gaiman’s Neverwhere meets Erewhon, or something.

  • The Guardian has an interview of China Mieville by a 12 year old reader, mostly about his new book Railsea. I didn’t like UnLunDun, but I do like Mieville’s work (not unequivocally) and I think he’s got interesting things to say. The interview isn’t groundbreaking, but it’s nice to see authors take their younger readers seriously, and it’s nice to see that a 12 year old can notice the similarities between UnLunDun and Neverwhere. I like the headline quote that the Guardian has chosen, too – it says a lot about Mieville’s attitude to his work because although he’s avowedly communist, in my opinion he doesn’t push his politics blatantly in his work, and everything I’ve read him saying about his work is first and foremost that it needs to be entertaining and escapist, and secondarily political. Consider this, for example, from the interview:

    I know some people think it is the role of SF to be prophetic: I don’t. I think the role of science fiction is not at all to prophecy. I think it is to tell interesting, vivid, strange stories that at their best are dreamlike intense versions and visions of today.

    which is a nice approach to sci fi, I think.

    Also, the interview finishes with the suggestion of an UnLunDun Olympics, and a film. Excellent ideas!!!